Damaging Wind and High Wind in Texas, March 8, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
539 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010

.AVIATION...
SURFACE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT /CURRENTLY IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO/
WILL RACE EAST THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER LOW BEFORE
CLEARING CDS BY MIDDAY. LIFR CONDITIONS THAT HAVE DOMINATED LBB
AND CDS OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR ONCE THESE BOUNDARIES
PUSH THROUGH. UNTIL THAT TIME SOME DENSE FOG AND OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF
-SHRA ARE LIKELY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FLIRT WITH AWW CRITERIA
AT LBB...BUT WILL FOREGO AN ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME AS THE STRONGEST
WINDS LOOK TO UNFOLD AFTER THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SOME BLDU IS
LIKELY WITH THESE WINDS. LASTLY...THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE
DRYLINE AT CDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW EARLY AFTERNOON TSRA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE IS NOT SUFFICIENT
TO WARRANT MORE THAN A CB LINE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010/

SHORT TERM...
THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED PACIFIC STORM IS FINALLY MAKING ITS EFFECTS
FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CWFA EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FORM OF
SOME TSRA. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS STILL 400 MILES TO OUR
WEST...THE MOST ORGANIZED ASCENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE 18Z AS THE
PRIMARY MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS EAST ACROSS WEST TX. ONSET OF
HEIGHT FALLS IS ALREADY APPARENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AT 10Z
IN THE FORM OF ENHANCED RETURNS...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES
MATERIALIZING SHORTLY THEREAFTER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY SLOT.
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS CLEARING MAY UNFOLD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE WHERE A -25C MID-LEVEL COLD POCKET COULD INCITE A FEW
AFTERNOON -SHRA. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE DRIED OUT MARKEDLY BY
THIS TIME BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT...SO VIRGA MAY
BE THE END RESULT.

OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE INCREASED THREAT FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS BEHIND THE DRYLINE AND FRONT AS MULTIPLE POINT SOUNDINGS
REVEAL DEEP MIXING WITHIN AN AMPLIFIED AND WELL-PHASED SWLY FLOW.
NAM AND GFS ARE CONSISTENT IN PROGGING THE STRONGEST KINEMATICS
ACROSS OUR NWRN ZONES UNDERNEATH A 700MB SPEED MAXIMA AND THIS IS
WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN CRITERIA BEING MET.
CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT FARTHER SOUTH ON THE CAPROCK AS
WINDS HERE APPEAR MORE CONDITIONAL...HOWEVER THE 06Z NAM DID
AMPLIFY THE 800-700MB FLOW SUFFICIENTLY THAT UPON COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WE HAVE DECIDED TO BLANKET THE CAPROCK
WITH A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 01Z. BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING BY
SUNSET WILL PUT A LID ON THESE WINDS. NONETHELESS...AS THE UPPER
LOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY STACKED AND BEGINS SLOWING TO OUR
NORTH...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WITHIN A BREEZY WESTERLY
FLOW OVERNIGHT. INHERITED MIN TEMPS MATCH THIS PATTERN QUITE WELL
WITH NO REASON TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM MOS.

LONG TERM...
WIND SPEEDS WILL PICK UP A BIT AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
DUE TO AFTERNOON MIXING BUT SHOULD NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS HIGH AS
TODAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...WEDNESDAY WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY. ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT THIS SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AS OPPOSED TO NORTH OF US.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP EARLY IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. WILL LIKELY HAVE TO HOIST ANOTHER WIND ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH A WARM DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY...BLOWING
DUST WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER GOOD BET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
LOOK TO TRY AND WRAP AROUND THE LOW WHICH MAY BRING PRECIP TO THE
NORTHERN ZONES BUT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLIDE SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY WHICH MIGHT ALSO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AT THE SAME TIME...ALL
MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER S/W SWINGING IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH BROAD-SCALE LIFT
TO HELP SPARK SHOWERS AS WELL. OPTED TO LEAVE POPS UNCHANGED AND
AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THURSDAY BUT WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THIS AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEK SINCE THE FLOW PATTERN IS RATHER COMPLEX
AND THERE WILL BE QUITE A FEW DEPENDENCIES ON HOW EACH STORM
SYSTEM CHANGES THE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

FINALLY FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST...RELATIVELY CALM WEATHER WILL
BE IN PLACE AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW STAYS ENTRENCHED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL AS
NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW ALSO REMAINS IN PLACE. FINALLY BY SATURDAY
NIGHT WE SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN WITH A RIDGE MOVING OVER THE
REGION. ONCE AGAIN SEE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
RETURN BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST AS THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN CONUS WHILE THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY
WEAKER WITH THAT STORM SYSTEM.

JORDAN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        58  34  67  32  58 /  80  10   0  10  20
TULIA         62  37  66  31  59 /  80  10   0  10  20
PLAINVIEW     62  38  67  35  59 /  70  10   0  10  20
LEVELLAND     61  38  69  39  63 /  40   0   0  10  10
LUBBOCK       63  40  68  36  62 /  40   0   0  10  10
DENVER CITY   62  38  69  38  67 /  20   0   0  10  10
BROWNFIELD    63  39  69  38  66 /  30   0   0  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  43  72  41  60 /  50  10   0   0  20
SPUR          69  41  71  40  64 /  50   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     72  44  74  43  67 /  50   0   0   0  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>042.

&&

93/14/93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
600 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010

TXZ021>044-091200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
600 AM CST MON MAR 8 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE REGION. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED.

NON PRECIPITATION

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS. AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE REGION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A
SILVERTON TO POST LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WINDY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING DUST. OTHERWISE...HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.