Wildfire in Texas, July 4, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
647 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...EXCEPT AT KCRP...HAVE FORECAST MVFR CIGS FOR AT LEAST
A PERIOD AND/OR TEMPO OF TIME OVER THE TERMINALS (KCRP SHOULD BE
VFR). THIS IS BASED ON 24 HOUR PERSISTENCE AND IN PART GUIDANCE.
EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A SHORT TIME AT KVCT BEFORE
06Z...AFTER 06Z AT KLRD AND AROUND 06Z AT KALI. LIGHT FOG HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT AT KALI SO WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR BR BEFORE
SUNRISE THERE. AFTER 14Z...CIGS SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR (COULD SEE
SOME TEMPO BKN025-BKN030) WITH GENERALLY SSE OR SE WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KNOTS BUT SOME
WIND GUSTS. CONCERNING RAIN/THUNDER AT THE TERMINALS...ONLY HAVE
VCSH AT KLRD AS EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN TO SHOWERS...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010/

SHORT TERM...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR HAS FILTERED IN TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION FROM A RIDGE BUILDING INTO SOUTH TEXAS
FROM THE AND THERE ARE NO SHOWERS TO BE FOUND ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.
THERE ARE THICK CUMULUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE REMNANTS
OF ALEX. A WEAK CAP EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THE MID LEVELS
HAVE WARMED. THE REMNANTS OF ALEX REMAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO
AND ARE BEING DRAWN UP INTO WEST TEXAS BY A TROUGH. THE CANADIAN
IS THE MOST BULLISH BRINGING THIS PRECIP INTO THE WESTERN AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF AND GFS ALSO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF ALEX SLOWLY
SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT AND MAKING IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
BUMPED UP POPS TO 40S ACROSS THE WEST AND TOOK OUT POPS ACROSS THE
EAST. THERE MAY BE A STREAMER SHOWER IN THE MORNING WITH DECENT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO WARRANT 20 POPS.
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS EVEN DRIER AIR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
AND THIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS ON MONDAY. MODELS
SHOW PWATS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 1.7 INCHES...BUT STILL SHOW 2
TO 2.3 INCH PWATS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. TOOK OUT POPS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND LEFT 20S IN FOR THE WEST.
PWATS DROP EVEN FURTHER MONDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE
GFS...SHOWING 1.2-1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE GFS STILL
HAS HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
DUE TO IT LINGER MOISTURE FROM THE LEFTOVERS OF ALEX. FOR
NOW...LEFT THE 20 POPS IN FOR THE EVENING AND THEN EVERYTHING
SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 AND HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS.
SOME CONVECTION FROM MEXICO MAY CLIP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BUT WIND
FLOW ALOFT IS VERY LIGHT. HOWEVER SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GENERALLY MODELS
FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS HAVE BROUGHT A LARGE SWATH OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
TO OUR REGION STARTING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY OF THE
STRENGTH OR DEVELOPMENT OF THE EASTERLY WAVE BUT INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF A WET WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DRYING. HAVE INCREASED WEATHER CHANCES DURING
THIS PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
GENERALLY SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THIS COULD BE SUPPRESSED
FURTHER SOUTH IF THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS PROGGED ENDS UP BEING TOO
STRONG AND OTHER SOLUTIONS TAKE PART OF THE DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF INSTEAD OF SOUTH TEXAS.

MARINE...SCEC CONDITIONS WITH SE WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF ON MONDAY AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KNOTS. E/SE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    79  91  79  91  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
VICTORIA          76  93  77  93  75  /  10  10  10  20  20
LAREDO            80  96  79  97  78  /  40  20  20  20  20
ALICE             77  93  77  92  74  /  10  10  10  20  20
ROCKPORT          82  90  82  90  80  /  10  10  10  20  20
COTULLA           77  93  76  94  74  /  40  20  20  20  20
KINGSVILLE        80  95  81  95  76  /  10  10  10  20  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  89  82  89  80  /  10  10  10  20  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

GW/86...AVIATION/MESO
TM/95...SYNOPTIC/GRIDS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-052015-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
308 PM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER EAST TEXAS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY TO SOUTH TEXAS. BECAUSE OF
SATURATED SOILS THIS WOULD ELEVATE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IF HEAVY
RAINS OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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