Flooding and Hail in Kansas, July 4 to 5, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
337 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AND CHANCES AGAIN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK WILL MOVE
INTO WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY EVENING. A TROPICAL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST FA WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PRATT TO NEAR COLDWATER AND EAST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR WEST FA THEN SPREADING EAST
TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS AND QPF WEST AND NORTH AND
ANOTHER AREA IN THE EAST FA WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PLUME. COULD HAVE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MAINLY NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF QUARTERS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST BY 7 PM WEST OF A LINE FROM HAYS TO COLDWATER. MORE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE EAST UNTIL THE SHORTWAVE
PASSES BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER 50KTS
CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS, AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.

LOOK FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST TODAY WITH SOME AREAS OF
SUNSHINE IN THE WEST FA. HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS EAST BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS STORMS. WILL GO WITH MID TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW TO MID 80
EAST. FOR TONIGHT LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE MID 60S WEST TO THE LOWER 70S
EAST. ON MONDAY WILL CONTINUE WITH MID TO UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW TO
MID 80S NORTH AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A
BIT COOLER IN THE WEST WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S WITH AROUND 70 AGAIN IN THE EAST FA.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED
IN THE FAR WEST. THIS WILL CREATE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXES WILL CONTINUE TO EJECT OUT OF
THE TROUGH IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. NEAR THE SURFACE, AN EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
BE THE GENERAL RULE ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS HELPING TO KEEP AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. THIS SETUP IS ENOUGH TO PRESENT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY EACH DAY...MOST LIKELY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF A STRONGLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM AND OTHER UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR
OUT, WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR TO POSSIBLY JUST BELOW SEASONAL DURING THE WEEK AS AN EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS A KEY COMPONENT. THE GFS AND
ECMWF BOTH AGREE SHOWING H85 TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AROUND THE LOW
TO MID 20S(C) ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S(F) TO NEAR 90F DURING THIS
PERIOD. AS A RESULT, PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN EASTERN COLORADO
TODAY INFLUENCING A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO WESTERN KANSAS
WHICH WILL HELP TO SUPPLY PLENTY OF MOISTURE. FOR THIS REASON,
PERIODS OF LOW LEVEL STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE VICINITIES OF KHYS, KDDC, AND KGCK EARLY
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN PERIODS OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH
SOME ISOLATED IFR CIGS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS STILL A POSSIBILITY GENERALLY EAST OF A
KHYS TO KDDC LINE. A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWESTERN KANSAS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KDDC WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST DURING THE NIGHT. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
IT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE 15 TO 25KT WITH GUSTS TO 35KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  86  68  86  66 /  30  50  50  10
GCK  85  67  87  64 /  40  60  40  10
EHA  87  65  88  62 /  20  40  20   0
LBL  86  67  87  64 /  30  40  30  10
HYS  84  69  84  67 /  60  80  60  20
P28  82  72  84  71 /  70  60  50  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN06/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
413 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-051000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
413 AM CDT SUN JUL 4 2010 /313 AM MDT SUN JUL 4 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
WEST OF LINE FROM WAKEENEY TO LIBERAL ALONG AND NEAR THE COLD
FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE ALONG WITH AREAS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER TODAY EAST OF LINE FROM ASHLAND TO SAINT JOHN...SOME ALSO
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM HAYS TO
ASHLAND AND WEST BY MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THEN WILL BE
POSSIBLE EAST OF THAT LINE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL IF ANY OF THESE WILL BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
WAKEENEY TO LIBERAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO PLEASE
FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS THE
REST OF AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

06/32