High Wind in Texas, December 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1135 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY MORNING /14-17Z/ DUE TO A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE AT KMAF AND KHOB DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CST FRI DEC 10 2010/

DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING UNDERNEATH DRY NW MID LEVEL FLOW RESULTING
IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. SHRTWV TROF WILL BE E OF
THE NRN ROCKY MTNS THIS EVENING WITH AN ASSOCD COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
CLOSELY IN ITS WAKE. ASSOCD SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CDS AREA THIS
EVENING FAVORING WLY SFC WINDS THRU THE NIGHT ACRS THE PB. SAID
SHRTWV TROF WILL UNDERGO MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WHICH WILL SERVE TO
SHOVE FRONT S AND EXPECT FROPA INTO CNTRL PB BTWN 15Z-18Z. MSLP
GRADIENT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BU ENUF TO GET SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
20 MPH AT TIMES. S OF THE FROM INTO THE FARTHER REACHES OF THE TRANS
PECOS IT WILL STILL BE A WARM DAY A HEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC RIDGE AND
DRY AIR/LIGHT WIND SUNDAY MORNING WILL MAKE FOR A COLD MORNING...
M20S. NW MID LEVEL AND SFC RIDGE TO E WILL HAVE ENUF OF A PRESENCE
TO KEEP IT COOL. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S ACRS PB. STILL DRY NW FLOW MONDAY AND LEE TROF SLOW
DEEPENS WITH 85H TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TEENS ACRS SE NM
SUPPORTING WARMING TREND. STRONG INDICATION OF ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING TUE/WED WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM/DRY AND POTENTIALLY
WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). COLD AIR WILL LURKING TO THE N THOUGH AND
SHRTWV TROF PASSING ACRS CNTRL PLAINS MAY BE ENUF TO PUSH COLDER S
THUR.

FIRE WEATHER...
BRIEF RED FLAG CONDITIONS AT A FEW PLACES ACRS THE W THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THEY WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT
MOVING S THRU THE AREA SAT MORNING WILL RESULT IN SFC WINDS NEAR 20 MPH
AT TIMES. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF COMBINATION OF WIND/RH ACRS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS SAT THAT RESULT IN LOCAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
TUE-WED OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE OF INTEREST WHEN ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
AND TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN EVENTUAL FIRE WX
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THEN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PATTERN CHANGE TUE/WED FOR CONSISTENCY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-120800-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
154 AM CST SAT DEC 11 2010 /1254 AM MST SAT DEC 11 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY SHIFTING WINDS
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT WILL OCCUR WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND