Hail in Texas, April 23, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
638 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH ENCROACHING FROM THE WEST...SCATTERED AND
MID-LEVEL BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS
EVENING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT...A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT.
BETWEEN 03Z AND 08Z...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM SONORA TO BROWNWOOD. CARRYING VCTS AT KJCT AND KBBD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. AS THE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS
THROUGH...SKIES WILL BE CLEARING SATURDAY MORNING. WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON SATURDAY MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWER...AND
EVEN A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES...ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BIG COUNTRY.
WASNT SURE WHETHER THIS WAS REACHING THE GROUND OR NOT...BUT CALLS
INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SOME OF IT IS.

ACTIVITY FARTHER WEST BETWEEN KSJT AND KMAF NOT AS ORGANIZED...AND
DOUBT THAT ANY OF ITS REACHING THE GROUND YET. STILL...AS IT COMES
EAST INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE...IT MAY. UPDATED TO ADD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO MUCH OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010/

SHORT TERM...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR
NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY COUNTIES. OUT WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM DALHART SOUTH TO LUBBOCK AND BIG SPRING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOMINATE WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

THE NAM BRINGS A SECONDARY 500 MB TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE NAM 925 MB RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND FIELDS INDICATE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
RETREAT BACK INTO A COUPLE OF OUR HEARTLAND AND NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR A FEW OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM 00Z TO 06Z.
OTHERWISE...WEATHER NIL FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...NUMBERS CLOSER TO MET MOS GUIDANCE LOOK GOOD.

23/HUBER

LONG TERM...

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY NIGHTS RAINFALL WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE
FORECAST AREA REMAINING UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST OVER THE PLAINS BY MID-WEEK...A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO
THE WESTERN STATES IN THE WAKE OF ITS DEPARTURE AND BRING THE AREA
UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN DRIFT
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED. WITH
SYNOPTIC WEATHER SYSTEMS REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED...DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
PICTURE WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID 80S BY
THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 49  77  50  81  53 /  20   0   0   0  10
SAN ANGELO 	 49  79  48  81  52 /  20  10   0   0   0
JUNCTION 	 46  80  46  82  50 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
451 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-242200-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
451 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY...MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF A SAN SABA TO MASON TO JUNCTION LINE. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF REACHING SEVERE
LEVELS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE THREAT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH THE STORMS QUICKLY PUSHING EAST OUT OF
THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
810 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

TXZ139-140-240215-
COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
810 PM CDT FRI APR 23 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR
COLEMAN AND BROWN COUNTIES...

AT 806 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES NORTH OF ROCKWOOD...OR ABOUT 12
MILES SOUTH OF SANTA ANNA...MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  US-67 NEAR THE COLEMAN-BROWN COUNTY LINE BY 820 PM CDT  BANGS BY
  825 PM CDT
  EARLY AND BROWNWOOD BY 835 PM CDT
  BLANKET BY 850 PM CDT

PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA
ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.