Flash Flooding and Hail in South Dakota, June 26, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
119 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE THIS AFTERNOON DEALS WITH THE SEVERE STORM
THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS WELL AS PRECIP CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

A WARM FRONT OVER IOWA WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS
AFTERNOON CREATING A BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION THAT STRETCHES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA. A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS
MORNING HELPED TO SET OFF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE CWA FROM RISING RAPIDLY THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
JUICY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND 70S. SO THERE ARE A FEW WHAT
IFS TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING. WHILE MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HAVE HELPED STABILIZE THE CWA SOMEWHAT A FEW OF THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLEAR...LIKE LYMAN AND HAND...WHICH
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORM FORMATION WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE.

THE TURNING WITH THE WARM FRONT IS CREATING THE POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOS INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE SE CWA AND A WATCH IS IN
EFFECT. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE FAR NORTH FOR MUCH ACTIVITY AS SIOUX
FALLS CWA LOOKS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. 3500 TO 4500 J/KG CAPE AND 35 TO 50 KTS
OF SHEAR WILL HELP SUPERCELLS FORM.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT AS TO THE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER TIMING
IS ANOTHER ISSUE. THE NAM BLASTS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH AND CLEARS
OUT ANY PRECIP BEHIND..WHILE THE GFS PULLS THROUGH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE BY MORNING GENERATING MORE QPF ACROSS THE REGION. THE
ECMWF FALLS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THEREFORE INCREASED POPS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A BREAK AND KEPT THE
SLIGHT CHANCES IN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

BY MONDAY A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FOR A WELCOME REGIME
CHANGE. LOOK FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT. UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO
AREA BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. RIDGE SHOWS
SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS GOOD FOR THESE
TIME PERIODS AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND COLD FRONT
ENTERS AREA BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. A FEW STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. LOCAL MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...KRAMLICH

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

SDZ003>005-009-010-015-016-270845-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010 /236 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
BY MIDNIGHT THE STORMS WILL HAVE PUSHED EAST INTO MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER BY 3PM CDT.

SDZ017-033>037-045-048-051-270845-
FAULK-STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010 /236 AM MDT SAT JUN 26 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN SET THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER BY 3PM CDT.

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-270845-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
336 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT..COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING THROUGH...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AGAIN
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY STORMS DO FORM...
THEY WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM THIS AFTERNOON.

HINTZ

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