Hail in South Dakota, August 12, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
329 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY AM

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHORT TERM THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. WILL NOT
REHASH PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AS THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORECAST PARAMETERS. THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT EAST OF HIGHWAY 281
SUGGESTIVE OF POTENTIAL FOR STORM ROTATION...PARTICULARLY IF
LINKED WITH WARM FRONT SITUATED FROM HOSMER TO WATERTOWN.
AGAIN...ONLY CAVEATS ARE THE RATHER WEAK JET ALOFT...AND WARM H7
TEMPERATURES TO CONTEND WITH. ONCE THROUGH WITH CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO REGION. COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WILL SUPPORT A NEARLY DAILY CHANCE FOR
THUNDER DESPITE THE LOWER DEWPOINT AIRMASS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A PATTERN CHANGE THAT COMES TO FRUITION IN THE SHORT RANGE LASTS
WELL INTO THE EXTENDED...THAT PATTERN FEATURING A MID LEVEL TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...AND FOR THE MOST PART THAT IS WHAT IS REPRESENTED
IN THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS. AS FOR PCPN...IT IS VERY HARD TO
DETERMINE TIMING OF WAVES IN THE FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IN
ADDITION TO THE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT...THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ALLOWING FOR DIABATICALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER FOR
NOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS LOOKS PRETTY LOW AND THUS WILL LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING...EXCEPT FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY WHEN ANOTHER BOUNDARY MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER WILL BE AT KABR AND
ESPECIALLY KATY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
438 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

MNZ039-046-SDZ006>008-011-018>023-130945-
TRAVERSE-BIG STONE-BROWN-MARSHALL-ROBERTS-DAY-SPINK-CLARK-
CODINGTON-GRANT-HAMLIN-DEUEL-
438 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL UP
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEED AFTER 3 PM CDT.

SDZ003>005-009-010-015>017-033>037-045-048-051-130945-
CORSON-CAMPBELL-MCPHERSON-WALWORTH-EDMUNDS-DEWEY-POTTER-FAULK-
STANLEY-SULLY-HUGHES-HYDE-HAND-JONES-LYMAN-BUFFALO-
438 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2010 /338 AM MDT THU AUG 12 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME STRONG WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE AND GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER
THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

SD