Damaging Wind in South Carolina, June 2, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
233 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER STAGNANT PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...AS A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS REMAIN WELL TO OUR
NORTH. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVER THE WEEKEND AND MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON IN AND
NEAR THE MTNS WHERE S TO SW UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS EASILY
TRIGGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. WEAK WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW WILL PUSH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OUT INTO THE ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINGERING SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME COVERAGE OVER THE PIEDMONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOIST PROFILES AND FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14 KFT SHOULD ONCE AGAIN
MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT RATHER MARGINAL. SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING
OF CELLS OVER WET ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS WILL MAKE ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THE BIGGER THREAT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTFLOW DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DECAY IN
PIEDMONT SECTIONS TONIGHT...BUT THE LACK OF UPPER FORCING IN THE
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW COVERAGE TO STEADILY DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE THINKING IS THAT THE NAM SOLUTION
DEPICTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG A BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CHARLOTTE
REGION IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS OVERDONE. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
IS LIKELY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THU
MORNING AT PRESENT.

ON THU...A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CARVE OUT OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MTNS SHOULD BE THE FIRST
AREA OF INITIATION AGAIN ON THU AFTN WITH SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE AFTN TO AID
LIKELY MTN COVERAGE...AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 6 DEG
C/KM COULD MAKE TSTMS A BIT STRONGER. THERE MAY ALSO BE SLIGHTLY
MORE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE SOUNDINGS TO MARGINALLY INCREASE THE
DOWNBURST THREAT. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR SO WARMER THU THAN
TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM IN THE NC MOUNTAINS EARLY THURSDAY EVENING... WHERE WE WILL
HAVE HIGHER POPS ALONG A SURFACE CONVERGENT AXIS. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD WANE IN THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND LOCAL
FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A SLIGHT UPSLOPE COMPONENT WAS
NOTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AS A RESULT WE WILL KEEP
SMALL POPS GOING NC MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INTERESTING SET-UP FOR FRIDAY AS MODELS IN VARIOUS DEGREES BRING
SOME SORT OF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST THROUGH THE DEEP
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASING PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE. PWATS
INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES. WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO FALL A BIT
AND WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED TSTMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAIN. HAVE KEPT POPS RIGHT AROUND 50
PERCENT AS DIFFICULT TO FOCUS ON CERTAIN MESO-SCALE FEATURES WITH
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS. I.E. THE GFS WAS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH
(ALTHOUGH) IT WAS INDICATING A HIGHLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE NAM FOCUSING ON OUR CWA...AND SREF SMOOTHED
THINGS OUT CONSIDERABLY.

THERE MAY BE SLIGHTLY LESS CONVECTION SATURDAY WITH A LACK OF SFC
FOCUS...SLIGHTLY LESS PWATS AND BAND OF WLY'S STILL REMAINING NORTH
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UPSHOT WE HAVE POPS A FEW POINTS UNDER
FRIDAY'S VALUES.

WE HAVE FOLLOWED MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDE DURING THIS PART OF THE FCST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...A BIT MORE RIDGING OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
REGION IN THE WRN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...COUPLED WITH MORE TROFFING
MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND...AND YET ANOTHER UPPER FEATURE MOVING
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE AN AMPLIFICATION IN
THE MEAN HEIGHTS OVER THE ERN CONUS. AS A RESULT A NWLY FLOW WILL
TRY TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

WITH MOISTURE POOLED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY...AND EXPECTED VERY
GOOD INSOLATION...COULD BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY. WILL START THINGS
OUT WITH LIKELY POPS MOUNTAINS TO CHANCE IN PIEDMONT. WE HAVE LEFT
AN OPEN ENDED CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
MODELS.

OTHER THAN UPSLOPE DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE NC MOUNTAIN MONDAY...IN
NWLY FLOW ALOFT...HAVE KEPT OTHER PLACES DRY.

DIFFERENCE START TO COME IN PLAY TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS RETURN
MOISTURE TRIES TO MAKE A RUN BACK TOWARD OUR REGION...WITH RETURNING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE HAVE FOLLOWED TREND OF HPC...NEW GFS AND
EARLIER EUROPEANS WITH SMALL CHANCE WRN FORECAST AREA.

LITTLE QUIBBLE WITH MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING JUST NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AIRFIELD. THE WESTERLY STEERING FLOW IS KEEPING THUNDER OUT OF
THE OBSERVATION SO FAR. WILL RIDE ON A VICINITY SHOWER REMARK ALONG
CB CLOUD TYPES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOW VFR RANGE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
LATE THIS EVENING. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MVFR
CIGS TO DEVELOP AFT 08Z. IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT IS NOT SUGGESTED BY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS AT MVFR FOR NOW. CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AND SCATTER CIRCA 13Z TO 14Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTN WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KAVL HAD A THUNDERSTORM AT ISSUANCE TIME AND WILL LIKELY HAVE
THUNDER IN THE VICINITY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KHKY
WILL SEE THE NEXT GREATEST CHANCE...WITH JUST A VCSH MENTION
WARRANTED FOR NOW. THE UPSTATE TAF SITES MAY SEE TSRA EARLY THIS
EVENING ON THE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOWS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IFR CIG
DEVELOPMENT...WITH LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE KAVL TO KHKY. CIGS WILL
LIFT AND SCATTER THROUGH THU MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A TROUGH IN THE VICINITY.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED TSTMS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THU THROUGH SAT. THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY. IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK
EACH DAY. DRYING IS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...TS
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
405 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030815-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
405 AM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW...ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
AND MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

SCZ001-021915-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
251 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SALEM...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF WALHALLA...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...

SALEM AND LAKE KEOWEE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3499 8295 3497 8291 3496 8291 3495 8290
      3493 8291 3492 8290 3487 8291 3481 8298
      3492 8304

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
300 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

NCZ072-021930-
CABARRUS-
300 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM EDT...

AT 257 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF MIDLAND...OR 10 MILES EAST OF UNC
CHARLOTTE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHERN CABARRUS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

MIDLAND...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3519 8050 3521 8055 3523 8059 3525 8061
      3530 8059 3528 8044

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
305 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

SCZ003-006-007-021945-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
305 PM EDT WED JUN 2 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE AND
NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LANDRUM TO MARIETTA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  ROBINSON...LAKE BOWEN...TRAVELERS REST...TIGERVILLE...MARIETTA...
  GOWENSVILLE...LANDRUM AND CAMPOBELLO.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3495 8253 3501 8255 3501 8259 3503 8259
      3520 8226 3520 8221 3511 8205 3490 8244

LANE