High Wind in Oregon, April 26 to 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
327 PM PDT MON APR 26 2010

.SHORT TERM...STRONG FRONT PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ATTM
AND THIS WILL MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING IN IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG
SHORTWAVE AT ABOUT 42 N AND 132 W. MAIN IMPACTS WITH THIS STORM
WILL BE RAIN AND WIND. WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE SHASTA
VALLEY AND OVER THE EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CORE OF
50-60KT WINDS AT 700 MB WILL MOVE OVER THE EAST SIDE AREAS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT...EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE OREGON ZONE 29 AND CALIFORNIA ZONE 85. THINK WIND WILL
REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY HERE IN THE ROGUE VALLEY THIS EVENING
BEFORE THE RAIN STARTS. RAIN HAS STARTED ALONG THE COAST AND WILL
SPREAD INLAND THIS EVENING REACHING THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT. RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL BE QUITE HEAVY ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
OF THE TYPICAL OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS OF SOUTHERN CURRY
COUNTY AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA RECEIVING UPWARDS OF 3 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY 0.25 TO 0.50 OF AN INCH
AROUND THE ROGUE VALLEY. SNOW LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT SNOW...BUT WILL LOWER TO
AROUND 4500-5000 FEET TUESDAY MORNING. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA TUESDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SHOWERS GOING. THERE
COULD EVEN BE A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD TROUGH WILL OVERCOME ALL OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 3000 FEET.
THE CHILLY....SHOWERY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PREVIOUS ECMWF RUN SUGGESTED A
TROF PLOWING SOUTH INTO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 140 W
NEXT WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS IDEA. HOWEVER IT
STILL SUGGEST THE TROF MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...THUS
FLATTENING IT OUT SOME THEN DIGGING INTO THE PACNW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
IF THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS THIS WEEKEND...THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS
THAT IT WILL JUST FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND WEAKEN AT THE SAME TIME.
THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST TWO RUNS IN KEEPING THE
RIDGE AXIS FARTHER EAST COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WITH A NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A THERMAL TROF
BUILDING UP FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE MADE LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED AND WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS IDEA AND KEEP
POPS BELOW CLIMO AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...WIND SPEED SHEAR IS THE MAIN CONCERN ALONG THE COAST AND
UMPQUA BASIN UNTIL 3Z AT THE COAST AND 5Z INLAND. AS THE FRONT MOVES
INLAND CIGS WEST OF THE CASCADES INITIALLY LOWERS TO MVFR...THEN IFR
AFTER 6Z INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MTNS BECOMING OBSCURED. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE EAST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOWERING
TO IFR AROUND 10Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AT THE LMT
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR ORZ029>031.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ085.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 5 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ370-376.

SPILDE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
253 PM PDT MON APR 26 2010

CAZ085-ORZ029>031-272100-
MODOC COUNTY-KLAMATH BASIN-
NORTHERN AND EASTERN KLAMATH COUNTY AND WESTERN LAKE COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN LAKE COUNTY-
253 PM PDT MON APR 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO 2 PM PDT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CAZ081-272100-
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY-
253 PM PDT MON APR 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT. SEE WEATHER MESSAGE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO 2 AM PDT TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GLASER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
501 PM PDT MON APR 26 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 SSW RUCH              42.14N 123.07W
04/26/2010  E45 MPH          JACKSON            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED 40 TO 45 MPH

&&

CC