Flash Flood in North Dakota, March 19 to 20, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
904 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE BEFORE SUNRISE SHOWED CU FIELD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING...HOWEVER RADAR DOES SHOW CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
ZONES. OVERALL...CURRENT FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPS AND CLOUD
TRENDS. WITH DECREASE IN CU FIELD TO THE EAST HAVE CUT BACK ON SKY
COVER AND KEPT MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE WEST THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. CURRENT TEMP CURVES ARE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE...ALTHOUGH
THE LAST HOUR WAS ABOUT TWO DEG HIGH ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE DROPPED
A FEW DEG OF OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WILL LOOK AT THE 9 PM OBS PRIOR TO
SEND OUT UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO MID
TEENS...SLOWING THE MELTING PROCESS. MORE ON TEMPS IMPACTS ON
CURRENT HYDROLOGY SITUATION IN THE HYDRO SECTION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEPARTING LOW PRES AND APPROACHING HIGH WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...AS AN REMAINING CLOUDS SCATTER...AND THEN CLEAR THIS
EVENING. ALSO...WITH WEAKENING GRADIENT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
TONIGHT...THOUGH WITH RETURN FLOW ON SAT WINDS WILL BACK AND BECOME
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN NODAK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY. A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MAY BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS. SNOW
WOULD BE MORE LIKELY IN THE N VALLEY WHILE RAIN OR SNOW MORE
LIKELY IN THE S RED RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS HAVE FALLEN WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN RUNOFF INTO THE
RIVERS. N WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ON THE RED...HIGH WATER STAGES ARE PROJECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM FARGO THROUGH OSLO. OSLO WAS RISING
AT A MORE RAPID CLIP DUE TO SOME UPSTREAM ICE. STILL LOOKING FOR
END OF MONTH FOR WAVE CREST TO CLEAR PEMBINA AND MOVE TO OUR
NEIGHBORS TO THE N.

THE MAIN ICE ISSUES ARE NEAR LISBON...KINDRED AND ENDERLIN. ICE WAS
NOT FLOWING AT ALL NEAR KINDRED. THE SHEYENNE AT VALLEY CITY IS NOW
PROJECTED TO CREST BELOW FLOOD STAGE...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON
FULL EFFECT OF 3400 CFS RELEASES FROM BALDHILL.

THE ABSARAKA DAM ON SWAN CREEK UPSTREAM OF CASSELTON CONTINUES TO
REMAIN INTACT...ALTHOUGH SOME EROSION WAS CONTINUING. AT THIS
POINT...THE SITUATION IS BEING MONITORED CLOSELY BY CASS COUNTY AND
THE NATIONAL GUARD.

WEST FARGO...HARWOOD...HENDRUM...SHELLY AND CLIMAX WILL CONTINUE TO
BE BACKWATER AFFECTED FROM THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER. HILLSBORO
TRENDING TOWARD MAJOR BUT RATE OF RISE HAS DECREASED RECENTLY AND
WILL NOT RAISE WARNING SEVERITY AT THIS TIME.

MANY MN TRIBUTARIES NEAR THE RED RIVER ARE FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY OR
FALL. MN SITES FORECAST TO RISE NEAR THE RED RIVER WILL BE THOSE
AFFECTED BY BACKWATER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR RICHLAND...RANSOM...SARGENT...CASS...
BARNES...TRAIL...STEELE...GRIGGS...GRAND FORKS...EASTERN WALSH...
AND PEMBINA COUNTIES.

MN...AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR KITTSON...WESTERN MARSHALL...WESTERN
POLK...NORMAN...CLAY AND WILKIN COUNTIES.
&&

SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
536 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

MNZ001>004-007-029-NDZ008-016-027>030-038-039-049-052-053-201045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-WILKIN-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-
RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
536 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES IN
LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE RED RIVER VALLEY. COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CAUSE ICE TO FORM NEAR ANY SLOW MOVING
BODIES OF WATER. INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND IN
FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW OR RAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...BUT NO MAJOR STORMS ARE IN SIGHT.
FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH NEXT WEEK THROUGHOUT THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AS WATER IN THE RIVER SYSTEMS CONTINUES TO
FLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PLEASE REPORT FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054-201045-
TOWNER-CAVALIER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
536 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE STANDING BODIES OF WATER TO
FREEZE...AND LOCAL RUNOFF WILL END THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND ON FLOOD
WARNINGS AND FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SNOW ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AT THIS TIME ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040-201045-
ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WEST OTTER TAIL-
EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-
536 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE FLOODING THREAT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO DECREASE.
INFORMATION ON RIVER FLOODING CAN BE FOUND ON FLOOD WARNINGS AND
FLOOD STATEMENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW OR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA. AT THIS TIME...ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DK