Lightning Strike in North Carolina, September 26, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THE FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE TO
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
AREA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE NEAR TERM LOOKS BUSY AND WET AS OUR UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG
SOUTH THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. AN INITIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO HAVE ESTABLISHED THE COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE
ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AS MOST PLACES
HAVE A LOW OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AND A NORTHEAST BREEZE. A BIT OF A
LULL WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD OVER THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHO A SHOWER COULD POP UP AT ANY
TIME. ON ITS HEELS...PRECIP WAVE TWO IS ALREADY CROSSING THE MTNS
AND NE GEORGIA AT 18Z. THE CHARACTER OF SHORT WAVES AND BURSTS OF
UPPER DIVERGENCE ON THE FORWARD SIDE OF THE DIGGING UPPER LOW
SUGGESTS THAT WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL MORE BURSTS OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DEGREE OF FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WITH HIGH PW SUPPORTS THE
ONGOING FLOOD WATCH...ALTHOUGH THE PRECIP AMOUNT FORECAST HAS BEEN
CUT DOWN BECAUSE THE UPSLOPE IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE.
BECAUSE AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CUT...WILL NOT EXPAND THE WATCH EITHER.
TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEARLY STEADY IN THE DAMMING REGION OVERNIGHT...
WITH A SLOW RISE MONDAY MORNING. IF THE PRECIP CAN BREAK UP IN THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON...THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO COOL.

THERE IS A CONCERN THAT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL CREEP NORTHWARD ALONG A WEDGE BOUNDARY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN FRINGE ZONES. BY THAT TIME...SHEAR SHOULD HAVE
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS SUPPORTED A THREAT
FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IF A QLCS COULD FORM...ALTHOUGH THE TREND OF THE
NAM HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA STABLE THROUGH MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. THE SITUATION WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
LATER IN THE DAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
MATERIALIZE ACROSS MAINLY THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC...ALTHO CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EVEN BETTER OVER THE MIDLANDS/COASTAL PLAIN WHERE SPC HAS
A SLIGHT RISK ON THE DAY2 OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE TN RIVER
VALLEY MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER OH RIVER
VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS
INTO WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS CLOSE OFF ANOTHER LOW WEDNESDAY
IN THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES...WITH THE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER NAM LOW FORMING EARLIER IN THE DAY.

AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE EASTERN MOST PORTION
OF OUR AREA ON MONDAY EVENING. AS THIS FRONT MOVES FARTHER EAST...A
DRY SLOT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...END PRECIPITATION EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS. MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW FROM TN WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING IN HTE NC MOUTNAINS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATE
WEDNESDAY THE NAM MOVES THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST FROM THE NC
COAST IN RESPONSE TO WAVE ACTIVITY ALONG IT...AND BRINGS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR AREA FROM THE EAST. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH
THIS WESTWARD FRONTAL MOVEMENT...AND WOULD KEEP MOISTURE EAST OF THE
AREA. FOR NOW WEDNESDAY WILL BE KEPT DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY AS
CONFIDENCE IF LOW IN THE NAM SOLUTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE A TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CERTAINLY CROSS FLORIDA IN MID
WEEK AND THEN WHETHER ANY OF THAT REACHES THE CAROLINAS IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE THAT SYSTEM CROSSING THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS THURSDAY WITH SOME AFFECTS FOR OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY.  THE ECMWF IS TOTALLY DIFFERENT KEEPING US DRY FOR THE
WHOLE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.  THERE IS GROWING CONSENSUS OF A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT CROSSING FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY OR EARLY
SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK AND VERY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...THE DEVELOPMENT/PASSAGE OF AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
THE NC FOOTHILLS/WRN PIEDMONT APPEARS TO BE LOCKING IN THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE AS OF 18Z...WITH KCLT RIGHT ON THE EDGE. THIS WILL
COMPLICATE THE SITUATION IN TERMS OF THE CEILING. FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS THE CEILING MAY VARY BETWEEN IFR AND VFR. EXPECT THE
VISIBILITY TO IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WE HAVE A BIT OF A LULL IN ACTIVITY. NEXT BAND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS MAY
NOT REACH KCLT UNTIL 22Z OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE HOLE...BUT WILL KEEP ONLY A VCSH UNTIL 22Z. AFTER THAT
POINT...THINK THAT CEILING WILL COME DOWN THRU MVFR CATEGORY AND
FINALLY LOCK INTO IFR AS NEXT BAND ESTABLISHES THE WEDGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTIVE SCENARIO REALLY COMPLICATED FROM
DAYBREAK MONDAY ONWARD AS WEDGE BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO LIFT NORTHWARD.
THIS COULD PUT KCLT BACK ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY ALLOWING
WIND TO SHIFT AROUND TO SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14Z ONWARD.

ELSEWHERE...COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE IS LOCKING IN AT KAND/KGSP/KGMU
AT 18Z WITH IFR CEILING. EXPECT THERE TO BE PERIODS WHEN CEILING
POPS BACK UP INTO LOWER MVFR...ESPECIALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT BAND OF PRECIP...BUT ONCE THAT MOVES IN CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IFR FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. KHKY IS A BIT BEHIND THE
OTHERS...BUT THINK IT TOO WILL GO DOWN TO AT LEAST LOW END MVFR WITH
THE NEXT PRECIP...IF NOT IFR...AND THEN STAY THERE. THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD STAY IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIP FOR THE DURATION...SO
IFR PREVAILS AT KAVL.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON KEEPING WIDESPREAD PRECIP WITH IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS INTO
THE EVENING. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY MONDAY NIGHT SO CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD MID WEEK.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NCZ033-035>037-048>053-
     056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR SCZ001>010.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

NCZ033-035-048>050-053-056-064-065-068>070-501>510-SCZ002-003-
006>008-271945-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-SCZ001-004-005-010-
271945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-SCZ009-271945-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE FROM CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN.
THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THIS TIME...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND PERHAPS EVEN AN
ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-SCZ011>014-019-271945-
ELBERT-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
331 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATION.

AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...WINDS ALOFT
WILL STRENGTHEN. THIS MAY ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THIS TIME...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND
PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL AS SEVERE
WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

07