Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, May 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FOR MID WEEK AS THIS LAST COLD FRONT
STALLS OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SFC DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE U80S EAST OF
THE MTNS WITH LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS. THE COMBINATION
OF THE MILD TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE VALUES
OF 1500-3000 J/KG. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 700-650 MBS...PROVIDING CIN VALUES 20-40 J/KG.
THE CIN WILL LIKELY DELAY DEEP CONVECTION INITIATION UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON OVER THE MTNS. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY WEST TO
EAST. MODERATE TO HIGH CAPE AND DECENT LLVL WIND FIELDS SHOULD
PROMOTE CLUSTERS OF TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST FACING MTN
SLOPES...THEN COLD POOLS AND STORM MOTIONS WILL CARRY CONVECTION
TOWARD I-85 AND I-77. I WILL INDICATE LKLY TO DEF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS
THE MTNS WITH POPS RANGING FROM LKLY TO SCHC EAST. CONVECTION SHOULD
FADE BY MIDNIGHT.

FREEZING LEVELS WILL RANGE 14-15 KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...PLACING CORE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 25-27 KFT. BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF
CAPE WITHIN THE HAIL GROWTH REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SVR HAIL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. IF STORM ORGANIZE TO CLUSTERS OR
LINES...SVR WINDS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WITH DCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION..PW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES WITH K-INDEX VALUES IN THE L30S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING SEVERAL SVR STORM EVENTS WITH SOME AREAS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ARE
WITHIN THE SPC DY1 OUTLOOK. WE WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF SVR
WEATHER IN THE HWO.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL ASHE OUT BY MIDNIGHT WITH DEBRIS CLOUDS
LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING. PATCHES OF FOG LOOKS POSSIBLE WITH
MILD LOW TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD SUPPLY CAPE VALUES OF
1500-2000 J/KG. DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN NC MTNS EAST
ACROSS THE SC PIEDMONT AND UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. PW AMOUNTS
WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. STORM MOTIONS MAY ALLOW
SOME TRAINING...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A FEW
STORMS MAY PRODUCE SVR HAIL AND WIND. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 235 PM FRIDAY...STALLED FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA SAT NITE.
EVEN WITH THIS FEATURE...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT
SO HAVE KEPT CHC POP LIMITED TO THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE
FRONT AND LINGERING INSTABILITY...ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE STALLED FRONT...OR BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR WX SUNDAY. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT SHOULD BE ENUF FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITH THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE
BOUNDARY FINALLY DISSIPATES/MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THAT SAID...PRECIP CHANCES WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN
TIER OVERNIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT. DEEP SLY FLOW DEVELOPS MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. UPPER FORCING INCREASES AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVES
MOVE IN AND CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT LIKELY COVERAGE WITH SCT
STORMS AS WEAK INSTABILITY CONTINUES. LIKELY COVERAGE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD MONDAY NITE FOLLOWING THE BETTER FORCING. LOWS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE GEM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL STARTING THE TUESDAY
PERIOD WITH THE CLOSED OFF 500MB LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  THE ECMWF
WAS DEEMED TO BE THE MODEL TO LEAN TOWARD.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  CAPES DROP
OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL GIVE
AWAY TO NEARLY ALL SHOWERS.  SOME REMAINING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
STORM OVER THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  DRYING
WILL TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A GREATER INFLUENCE
OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH...FINALLY LEAVE THE AREA AS A CLOSED
LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO START NEXT WEEKEND.  CARRYING
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THAT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH MODEL TIME HEIGHTS
SUPPORTING A SCATTERED LOW DECK TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 40 SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A
LOW VFR CEILING SHOULD FORM....WITH ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
MENTION CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS.

AT KAVL...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN
THE EARLY EVENING...AND RADAR TRENDS SHOW IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO KAVL TO
CARRY CUMULONIMBUS EARLY...WITH A LOW VFR CEILING. CONVECTION ENDS
LATE THIS EVENING...AND BEFORE DAWN LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED.
LIGHT WINDS FAVOR POOLING OF COOL MOIST AIR IN THE VALLEY LATE
TONIGHT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT DAWN MVFR FOG AT THE LEAST...WITH WORSE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF RAIN FALLS THIS EVENING. WINDS PICK FROM THE
SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...AND NEARBY CONVECTION SHOULD BE OF
SUFFICIENT COVERAGE TO WARRANT A MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS...AS WELL
AS A LOW VFR CEILING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS IS TOO LIMITED AND TOO FAR
AWAY TO WARRANT A MENTION OF CUMULONIMBUS IN THE TAF. MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW LOW CLOUDS PERSISTING...BUT CEILINGS TONIGHT IF ANY
WILL BE MADE BY HIGH CIRRUS. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN FOG
FORMATION...AND GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG AT KHKY AND KAND. WINDS
COME UP FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS SATURDAY...AND BY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
ENOUGH TO MENTION CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND LOW VFR CEILINGS.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH CONVECTION ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IN THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS...AND POSSIBLE FOG BASED MORNING
RESTRICTIONS WHERE IT RAINS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-151945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
333 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST...MOVING
OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
IN ADDITION...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER THE REGION. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
516 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ052-059-063-142145-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
516 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BALSAM...OR 11 MILES SOUTH
OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUNBURST
  AND CRUSO.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3556 8277 3552 8277 3546 8280 3544 8278
      3542 8274 3541 8275 3531 8284 3529 8292
      3525 8292 3522 8304 3539 8311

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
548 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ033-503-142215-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
548 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 549 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF INGALLS...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO JONAS
  RIDGE...SUGAR MOUNTAIN...NEWLAND...INGALLS...GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN
  AND CROSSNORE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3610 8180 3606 8173 3596 8180 3594 8178
      3589 8190 3595 8194 3594 8196 3591 8195
      3590 8199 3596 8205 3601 8204 3604 8206
      3616 8182

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
619 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ033-142245-
AVERY-
619 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

AT 618 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BANNER ELK...OR 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
NEWLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL MAINLY
IMPACT THE BANNER ELK VICINITY THROUGH 645 PM.

PEA SIZE HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL UP TO ONE INCH...AND WIND GUSTS
OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3621 8190 3619 8185 3616 8182 3610 8180
      3608 8176 3602 8191 3617 8201 3619 8198
      3624 8191

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ049-050-505-142300-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
633 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN YANCEY...NORTHERN
MCDOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MICAVILLE...OR 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE AREA BETWEEN CELO AND BURNSVILLE...AND THEN FROM SPRUCE PINE TO
NEWLAND...WILL MAINLY BE AFFECTED BY THIS THUNDERSTORM THROUGH 7 PM.
PEA SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3601 8204 3596 8205 3590 8199 3590 8196
      3592 8195 3594 8196 3595 8194 3590 8191
      3587 8191 3574 8227 3590 8238 3606 8207

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
635 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ048-053-142300-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-
635 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE AND
SOUTHERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANTON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
WAYNESVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MARSHALL...
  CANTO...WOODFIN...WEAVERVILLE...LEICESTER AND CANDLER.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3573 8250 3551 8270 3554 8277 3557 8277
      3560 8280 3562 8282 3562 8284 3564 8287
      3585 8273

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
648 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

NCZ048-049-053-142315-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-YANCEY-
648 PM EDT FRI MAY 14 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE AND SOUTHWESTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 648 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARS HILL...OR 9 MILES EAST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MOUNT
  MITCHELL STATE PARK...MARS HILL...WEAVERVILLE AND BARNARDSVILLE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3594 8230 3571 8225 3568 8260 3586 8264

HG