Flooding in North Carolina, July 10, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
756 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS TO THE NORTH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS SUPPORT CURRENT CONVECTIVE LINE OVER COASTAL PLAINS MAKING IT
TO COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...THUS CONTINUED LIKELY POPS ALL ZONES.
ISOLATED WET MICROBURST PSBL WITH WINDEX INDICATING 50 KTS...AND
HEAVY RAIN LIKELY WITH PW NEAR 2.25 INCHES. FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL
ALONG COAST OVERNIGHT AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVITY LIKELY WITH
SECONDARY SHRT WV MOVING IN LATE...THUS KEPT LIKELY POPS ERN
SECTIONS AFT MIDNIGHT. MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR COAST SUN-MON...THEN RETURN N AS WARM
FRONT MON NIGHT-TUE. KEPT LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS SRN SECTIONS
SUN...AND SLGT CHC POPS INLAND MON AFTN...THEN CLIMO 20/30 POPS FOR
TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING BEHIND FRONT...AND MOS BLEND LOOKS
REASONABLE WITH HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 90S SUN AND LOW-MID 90S MON AND
TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO RETURN OF BERMUDA HIGH/PIEDMONT
TROF PATTERN MID WEEK THROUGH END OF WEEK. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID LVL TROF APPROACHING END OF WEEK BUT
DIVERGE ON HOW FAR E IT WILL MAKE IT. CONTINUED WITH HPC FCST AND
LOW CHC DIURNAL POPS EACH DAY...AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY LOW-MID 90S
INLAND OF COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SAT...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY WITH SCT CU
AROUND 4-5 KFT. BULK OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...BUT EXPECT SCT
ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED. FOR NOW HAVE HANDLED WITH CB...THROUGH COULD SEE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED EARLY SUN AM...ESP
AREAS SEEING RAIN THIS EVENING. FOG WILL BURN OFF SUN AM WITH VFR
RETURNING.

SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES INTO REGION SUN BEHIND FRONT WITH
PREDOMINATE VFR. EXPECT MAINLY VFR TO RULE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK OUTSIDE OF PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND DIURNAL
CONVECTION...AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRES AND INLAND TROUGH GRADUALLY
RETAKE CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 745 PM SAT...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED TO FORECAST THIS EVENING.
OBS CURRENTLY W/SW 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT. STILL EXPECT WINDS TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAVE TRENDED
WITH PERSISTENCE BASED OFF PREVIOUS FORECAST. WINDS PEAKING THIS
EVENING 15-25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT. SMALL CRAFT STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL...BUT WILL STICK WITH IT AND MAKE NO CHANGES AT THIS POINT.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN...THEN
WILL WASH OUT SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING QUICKLY EARLY
SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
SE BY LATE SUNDAY.

OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND TROUGH RETAKE CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BTWN INLAND
TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH BRIEF SW SURGES.
GENERALLY SW 10-20 KT WITH SEAS 3-5 FT SOUTH OF OREGON INLET AND
2-4 FT NORTH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR AMZ135.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JBM
AVIATION...CQD
MARINE...CQD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
406 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

NCZ095-098-103-104-111200-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
406 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-111200-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-
406 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THE STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

NCZ095-098-102130-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-
429 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW AND CARTERET COUNTIES
UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 429 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER CAMP LEJEUNE
MAIN GATE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
NEAR DUCK CREEK AT 435 PM EDT...HUBERT AT 450 PM EDT...BEAR CREEK AT
455 PM EDT...HAMMOCKS BEACH AT 500 PM EDT...SWANSBORO AT 505 PM
EDT...CEDAR POINT AT 510 PM EDT.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. MOST
LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES.
IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE
SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CULLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

NCZ046-047-080-081-093>095-103-102230-
TYRRELL-OUTER BANKS DARE-MAINLAND
DARE-BEAUFORT-PAMLICO-CRAVEN-MAINLAND HYDE-CARTERET-
528 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CARTERET...HYDE...CRAVEN...
PAMLICO...BEAUFORT...DARE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 527 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM MANNS HARBOR TO
8 MILES NORTHEAST OF HAVELOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ENGELHARD AT 540 PM EDT...CEDAR ISLAND AT
615 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
SWANQUARTER.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.MOST
LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES.
IF OUTDOORS...SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE
SHELTER IN SMALL SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE
AUTOMOBILES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

CULLEN

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