Rip Current in North Carolina, August 7, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
940 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE CAROLINA COAST
TODAY...AND LINGER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH AND BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM SATURDAY...WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND MORE SPECIFICALLY
REGIONAL 1200 UTC RAOBS TELL THE STORY THIS MORNING AS THE MOISTURE
REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS OUR AREA. THE NAM HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION AS THE GFS IS SIMPLY TOO DRY. THE MHX SOUNDING HAS
2.08 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER WHILE THE GFS MODEL SOUNDING AT
THE SAME POINT HAS 1.60 INCHES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH. THERE WILL BE A SLOW DRIFT OF THE DRIER AIR TO
THE SOUTH BUT THE SEABREEZE WILL HALT THE PROGRESS AT THE SURFACE.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE POPS IN THE 29-44 PERCENT RANGE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AND WITH THE MOISTURE...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING WITH SOME
RESIDUAL FOG AND THE SEA BREEZE...FEEL THIS IS CERTAINLY JUSTIFIED.
I HAVE SEEN SEVERAL OF THESE DRY AIR ADVECTION SCENARIOS IN THE
SUMMER BEING SOME OF THE WETTEST DAYS ACROSS THE AREA AS ANY
ACTIVITY SPAWNS NEW ACTIVITY WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. NO CHANGE TO
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS THE MET NUMBERS REMAIN THE
MODEL/GUIDANCE PRODUCT OF CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...DECAYING FRONT JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
ON SUNDAY WILL NOT MAKE MUCH OF A DENT IN THE HEAT OR
HUMIDITY...AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN. MID-LEVEL DRYING AND SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP A LID ON MOST IF
NOT ALL CONVECTION...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE RESTRICTED TO THE
COAST ON SUNDAY AND THAT MAY EVEN BE GENEROUS. MAX TEMPS AROUND
90 AT THE COAST AND IN THE MID 90S INLAND...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW
THE ADVISORY RANGE. MIN TEMPS ALSO ABOVE CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE
MID 70S. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 3F DISPARITY IN
MAX TEMPS FROM THE GFS MOS TO THE NAM MOS...AND GIVEN THE
CONTINUED BIAS OF THE GFS MOS WE WILL AGAIN FAVOR THE NOT-AS-HOT
NAM MOS.

EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS MONDAY EXCEPT FURTHER DOWNPLAYING THE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN A LITTLE STRONGER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
AND PIEDMONT TROF AT THE SFC. TEMPS ABOVE CLIMO ACROSS THE
BOARD...WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND MAX TEMPS ANYWHERE
FROM AROUND 90 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO MID/UPPER 90S INLAND.
DEEP MOISTURE IS SLOW TO RECOVER SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED. THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL
PUSH US CLOSER TO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS THE WEEK GOES
ON...WITH THU-FRI LOOKING LIKE THE BEST SHOT TO MEET ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 12 UTC...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SIXTIES BY
MID MORNING...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SLOWLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA. ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE RESULTANT AND ALONG
THE FRONT FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD. MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL
BURN OFF BY 13Z...14Z AT THE LATEST. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED THAN SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE ALMOST VARIABLE...MAINLY
NORTHEAST...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY WITH THE RESULTANT ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH SOME MVFR FOG
FORMATION NEAR SUNRISE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
POSSIBLE LIGHT MORNING FOG EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9:30 AM SATURDAY...LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
LEAD TO A BACKING OF WINDS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERAL SWELL COMPONENTS SHOWING UP ON THE MASONBORO INLET
BUOY...THIS FROM TROPICAL STORM COLIN SWELL. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN 2-4 FEET.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WILL INITIALIZE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE DECAYING COLD FRONT LINGERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS. TRANSITION TO THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL S-SW WINDS WILL BE
SLOWED BY POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10 KT REGARDLESS OF THE
DIRECTION. BY MONDAY THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATED AND LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE LESS OF A PLAYER...AGAIN GIVING WAY TO THE BERMUDA HIGH.
THIS SHOULD FINALLY ALLOW THAT WIND SHIFT BACK TO SW.

SEAS WILL BE AUGMENTED BY INITIALLY A 3-4 FT SE SWELL FROM DISTANT
TS COLIN. EVEN IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL WIND WAVES WE WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO SEE 5 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS...SO LITTLE OR NO
WORRY ABOUT HEADLINES. SWELL WILL DECAY HEADING INTO
MONDAY...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING A BIT TO 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SATURDAY...WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH AND PIEDMONT TROF RE-
ESTABLISHED...EXPECT THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH WINDS
OSCILLATING JUST EITHER SIDE OF SW AS A RESULT OF
DIURNAL/SEABREEZE PROCESSES. CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS WINDS CAPPED
AT 10-15 KT...BUT THAT WOULD NEED TO BE BEEFED UP ON ANY DAY THAT
WILL HAVE A SHARPER PIEDMONT TROF. SEAS GENERALLY 2-3 FT
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...RAS
AVIATION...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

NCZ097-100-101-080900-
PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

THE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF TWO OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ087-096-099-080900-
ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF TWO OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AMZ250-252-254-256-080900-
SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM-
CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM-
MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM-
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ034-046-080900-
HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE AREA BEACHES.

ALSO...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-080900-
MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION-WILLIAMSBURG-
454 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS A SMALL PROBABILITY THAT ONE OF TWO OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

7