Rip Current in North Carolina, August 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...TAKING THE FRONT WITH IT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BROAD WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. WENT WITH AN OVERALL DIMINISHING COVERAGE TREND.
WILL GO WITH 50-60 PERCENT POPS THIS EVENING...TAPERING BACK TO
CHANCE AFTER 03Z WED...THEN DRY AFTER 09Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH LEESIDE TROF SETTING UP JUST WEST
OF THE AREA. EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT MOISTURE AND LIFT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE SO WENT WITH ONLY
20-30 PERCENT POPS. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY THURSDAY WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER IN STORE.
RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN
ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT AHEAD OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL CYCLONE TO OUR NORTH. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN MINIMAL THUS
FAR BUT WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND COLD AIR ALOFT EMBEDDED
TSTMS WILL BE PSBL THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL FLIGHT REDUCTIONS...MAINLY
MVFR...WITH BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. EXPECT BULK OF
PRECIP TO DIMINISH BY LATER THIS EVENING. MADE NO CHANGE OF
PREVIOUS TAF OF LOWER END MVFR STRATUS/VSBYS DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT WITH MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WAS ALSO IN LINE WITH
THE LATEST AVIATION GUIDANCE.

PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH TO THE ISOLATED RANGE ON WED AS THE MID LVL
LOW OPENS UP TO A TROF AND SWINGS OFFSHORE. PERIODS FOG/STRATUS WILL
BE PSBL AGAIN LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU MORNING THO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONT LATE THU AFTN INTO THE
EVENING...THEN DRIER AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND FOR MOST TERMINALS
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTH.
MOIST NE FLOW AND LINGERING MSTR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY YIELD AN
ISOLATED TSTM CHANCE ON FRI THOUGH...ESP FOR SOUTHERN ROUTES.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 320 PM TUE...VERY CHALLENGING MARINE FORECAST PRETTY MUCH
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. INITIATED SCA HEADLINES FOR THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS AS THE DUCK BUOY 44100 HAS BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND 6FT THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE NE WAVE ENERGY
APPEARS TO BE CREEPING DOWN THE COAST AS THE JANETTES PIER BUOY
HAS ALSO GONE UP OVER 5FT RECENTLY. BUOY OBS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC LOW OFF THE MID ATLC COAST CONTINUE TO COME IN A BIT ABOVE
WW3 (ESP 44066)...AND THINK THE ASSOCIATED 8-10S SWELL ENERGY WILL
PICK UP A BIT THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS
COMBINES WITH LOCAL NE WIND WAVES AND RESIDUAL SLY SWELL
ASSOCIATED WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OFFSHORE...THE SEA STATE
WILL BE CHAOTIC OVER THE NEXT 12-18HRS OR SO. WHILE SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS MAY ONLY MEET MARGINAL ADVISORY CRITERIA (ESP SOUTH
OF HATTERAS) THINK THE INTERFERING WAVE SYSTEMS FURTHER WARRANTS A
HEADLINE FOR THE WATERS THROUGH OCRACOKE. SEAS SHOULD CALM DOWN A
BIT BY LATE WED AFTN AND AOB 4FT BY EARLY THU.

WEAK HIGH PRES WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON WED...WITH 5-15KT
NW/N WINDS EARLY TRENDING MORE SLY BY WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON THURSDAY BUT THE PREFRONTAL GRADIENT LOOKS WEAK SO
EXPECTING MAINLY S/SW FLOW AROUND 10KTS. STILL EXPECT THE FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THU NIGHT LEAVING MODERATE NE WINDS ON FRI. DID NUDGE
NE FLOW UP A TOUCH FOR THE WEEKEND AS MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH 10-20KT NE WINDS FOR SAT AND SUN.
AS ASSOCIATED NE WIND WAVES COMBINE WITH LONG PERIOD SE/E SWELL FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE DANIELLE...SCA SEAS SEEM TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THE
WEEKEND. CAPPED SEAS AT 6-8FT FOR THE CENTRAL WATERS FOR NOW GIVEN
RECENT AND EXPECTED INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS WITH DANIELLE...AND THE
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-104-252000-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS HYDE-
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ103-252000-
OUTER BANKS DARE-
349 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2010

...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING STRONG WIND GUSTS...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.