Wildfire in New Jersey, March 20 to 21, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1038 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION ABOUT TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT AFFECTS THE REGION
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE 12Z RAOBS FROM AROUND THE REGION ARE STILL SHOWING PLENTY OF
DRY AIR WITH ANOTHER UNBELIEVABLE DAY FOR MARCH IS IN STORE FOR
OUR CWA. SOUNDINGS MAXT MACROS ARE INDICATING AROUND 80F FOR THE
COASTAL PLAIN. BUT THEY RAN A FEW DEGREES TOO HIGH YESTERDAY.
NEVERTHELESS WE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES THE
FORECAST MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE SOUNDINGS
BEING SO DRY ABOVE THE SURFACE WE ALSO LOWERED FORECAST DEW POINTS
AND SUBSEQUENTLY HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE AFTERNOON. OUR LOCAL WRF
IS INDICATING THAT THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT MAKE MUCH OF A
WESTWARD EXTENT AND THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT
GRIDS.

SPRING ARRIVES AT 132 PM THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS CONTROLLED THE WX FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST, BUT WARM W TO SW FLOW WILL DOMINATE. NO
CHANGES WERE MADE TO TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH MOVES OFF THE COAST, A WEAK BACKDOOR
CDFNT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY
AND WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A
WIND SHIFT FROM THE W AND SW TO THE S TO SE. THE WX ON SUNDAY
LOOKS DRY AND WARM ONCE AGAIN, BUT WILL WILL BE COOLER AND
CLOUDIER THAN SATURDAY. AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE AND AN H5 TROF WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VLY DURING SUNDAY. THE
SFC LOW WILL THEN NEAR THE OH VLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP WITH
THIS SYS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE NRN AND WRN SECTIONS DURING
SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN THERE, POPS WILL BE QUITE LOW. IT IS
POSSIBLE, THAT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, THERE COULD BE SOME LOW POPS
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, BUT THE LATEST MDL RUNS SEEMED TO
WANT TO SLOW THINGS DOWN, AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES, THERE COULD
END UP BEING VERY LITTLE PRECIP ANYWHERE ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA AND THE SFC LOW
SPINS AROUND AND THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SYSTEM. THE 20/00Z NAM/WRF HOLDS
OFF VIRTUALLY ALL PRECIP UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. IT BRINGS
THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIP THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY, BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY
AND 06Z TUESDAY AND GENERALLY HAS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN. THE GFS ALSO HOLDS OFF THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP UNTIL
MONDAY, EVEN THOUGH WITH ITS TENDENCY TO OVERDO THE AREAL COVERAGE
OF THE PRECIP, IT IMPLIES SOME RAIN TO THE W SUNDAY NIGHT. IT ALSO
BRINGS THE CORE OF THE RAIN THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTN INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT HAS THE BRUNT MOVING THROUGH AFTER 00Z MONDAY. IT ALSO
WANTS TO BRING A SECOND SLUG OF PRECIP THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. IT
ALSO HAS ABOUT 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES OF RAIN. THE CMC IS EVEN SLOWER,
WITH VIRTUALLY NO PRECIP THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. IT BRINGS THE BRUNT
OF THE PRECIP THROUGH FROM 00Z TO 06Z TUESDAY AND IMPLIES ANOTHER
SLUG TUESDAY AFTN/EVE, MUCH LIKE THE GFS.

THE ECMWF HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MDLS THIS
CYCLE. IT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH PRECIP THROUGH 18Z MONDAY, BUT THEN
BRINGS THE BULK OF THE RAIN THROUGH DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IT HAS ALSO CUT BACK ON ITS QPF SOMEWHAT, BUT IS
STILL HIGHER THAN THE OTHER MDLS (GENLY AROUND AN INCH ON
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT). IT ALSO LINGERS SOME PRECIP INTO TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT (POSSIBLY ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.5 INCHES). 3 AND 6
HOURLY FFG VALUES RANGE FROM OVER 2 INCHES IN PORTIONS OF S NJ TO
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA, TO LESS THEN AN INCH
MAINLY OVER THE NRN AREAS, THAT GOT THE HEAVIEST RAIN A WEEK AGO.
HPC GUID SUPPORTS THE HIGHER NUMBERS ATTM. CERTAINLY, IF THE
ECMWF SOLN WERE TO MATERIALIZE, THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE N, BUT EVEN ACRS THE DELAWARE
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WILL
BRING DRY WX FOR WED AND THU. THEN, A CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM A
LOW IN CANADA AND A WK SFC LOW OVER THE SERN CONUS BOTH APPROACH
THE AREA AND BRING ANOTHER THREAT OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY MINOR OCCASIONS OF HIGHER, THIN CIRRUS SWEEPING THROUGH.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TRYING TO
MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION AND SOME TAF SITES MAY REACH THEIR
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, SO A LOWER 5KFT DECK WAS
MAINTAINED IN THE TAFS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL
OUR TAF SITES. AS ON FRIDAY, THE FLOW WILL MAINLY BE OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AND PRETTY CALM ON SATURDAY. WITH THE TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE COASTAL AREAS AND THE OCEAN ANOTHER SEA
BREEZE WILL SETUP ACROSS THE ACY TAF AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WESTERLY WIND ON SATURDAY, THE SEA BREEZE WILL NOT ADVANCE
AS FAR INLAND.

OUTLOOK...
DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
PROVIDE LOWERING CIGS WITH NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ON MONDAY. SHOWERS
MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FILING IN BEHIND ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ON OUR
WATERS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CALM OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE
STARTING TO TURN SLIGHTLY SOUTH IN THE ADVANCE OF AN STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENTER THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND POSSIBLY HANG AROUND UNTIL TUESDAY,
PROVIDING HIGHER SEAS AND STRONGER WINDS. RAIN WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PREVALENT WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FLAGS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GIGI/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...HEAVENER
MARINE...HEAVENER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-211100-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS AS IF BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES
OF RAIN WILL FALL DURING THIS PERIOD. IF THESE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE REALIZED, THERE COULD BE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS,
ESPECIALLY IN THOSE AREAS WHICH RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAIN LAST
WEEK.  OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-211100-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
651 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.