Damaging Wind in Nebraska, August 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
103 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

.DISCUSSION...
137 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

THE MID/UPPER FLOW REMAINS AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND A TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN
CONUS. THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA REMAINS ENTRENCHED BETWEEN THESE
TWO PRIMARY LARGE-SCALE FEATURES WITH SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW
PREVAILING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A SFC TROUGH AXIS EXPECTED TO LIE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LOWERING IN THICKNESS/HEIGHTS IS
PROGGED WHILE THE PRIMARY AREA OF H5 HEIGHT FALLS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NORTH IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND AND
EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT BASED ON LLJ PROGS.

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS INTO CANADA ON TUE, A STATIONARY FRONT
IS PROGGED TO LIE IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 36. LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS LOCATION WHILE VALUES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S FURTHER SOUTH. RAISED POPS TUE NIGHT
ALONG NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH INCREASING H7 WAA/310K
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. POINT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED PARCELS ARE
WEAKLY CAPPED WHILE A HEALTHY LLJ NOSES INTO THE REGION.

MAINTAINED LOW POPS EARLY WED IN SEASONABLE POST-FRONTAL REGIME,
HOWEVER THE AREA BECOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING FORCING
FOR SUBSIDENCE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY AND PULLED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING POPS.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.
&&

.AVIATION...
1111 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 18Z-20Z AT BOTH KMCK AND KGLD WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE MORE SO AT KMCK THAN KGLD
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTING EAST OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN 20Z-24Z AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASING LY UNSTABLE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER 00Z WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AFTER 08Z AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

LOCKHART
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1047 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1047 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2010 /1147 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AHEAD OF A
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM TRIBUNE KANSAS TO IMPERIAL NEBRASKA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE
FAVORED AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT LATE TUESDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.