Wildfire in Missouri, November 3 to 8, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
255 PM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

UPPER AIR PATTERN CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A MAJOR AMPLIFICATION AS
STRONG RIDGING WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
IN RESPONSE JET STREAM ENERGY WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND COMBINE WITH A CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A POWERFUL COASTAL LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR LONG ISLAND WITH A VERY DEEP 500MB LOW CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING THE COOLEST AIR
OF THE SEASON SO FAR BEGINNING THURSDAY.

ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES THIS EVENING OVER OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES WILL SCOOT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY
AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER LATE THIS EVENING. OUR CURRENT LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACH. SKIES WILL SLOWLY CLEAR THIS EVENING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION REALLY GETS UNDERWAY THURSDAY WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S...TOMORROW WILL BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THIS YOUNG FALL SEASON SO FAR.

NORTHERLY FLOW AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
THAT ARE QUITE LIKELY TO DROP BELOW 30 EARLY SATURDAY. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MAY BRING BRIEF OVERCAST SKIES EARLY FRIDAY. OUTSIDE
OF THIS HOWEVER...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SATURDAY AS THE AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE.

.EXTENDED FORECAST (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

A CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SUNDAY. THE STRONG 500MB LOW MENTIONED
EARLIER WILL LOSE ITS GRIP ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HEIGHTS
WILL RISE AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
SURFACE PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AND
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON ITS BACKSIDE. THE PROBABLE
PRESENCE OF A CUTOFF LOW OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A BLOCKY PATTERN. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL STAY
SCARCE. SO....EXPECT A SERIES OF MOSTLY CLEAR DAYS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS MILD AFTERNOON HIGHS AND COOL
NIGHTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
313 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-040815-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
313 AM CDT WED NOV 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THIS AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE OZARK FOOTHILLS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND VERY DRY
VEGETATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
OVER THE WEEKEND. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
MAY PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JP