Hail in Missouri, May 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
106 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
//234 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010//
A PREMATURE SUMMERTIME RIDGE WAS POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE OZARKS
REGION THIS MORNING.  THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES CREATED A BLOCKED AND INACTIVE
PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.

DESPITE LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS REGIME...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTING INTO THE 800-700MB LAYER.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S RESULTING IN A WEAKLY
CAPPED AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF HIGHWAY 63.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MORE FREQUENT
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS...AND LESS FREQUENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 80S.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
EXCEED 1.50 INCHES...CREATING A JULY/AUGUST LIKE AIRMASS.  AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL HELP INDUCE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS.  GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AND HIGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A FEW DOWNBURST
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  WILL INSERT A
MENTION OF A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE HWO FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON PERIODS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD.  IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE
OZARKS REGION...MITIGATING AFTERNOON CONVECTION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800Z TAFS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES ARCHING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF COAST IS DOMINATING THE OZARKS AND EASTERN
KANSAS. THE SURFACE HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS. WITH A WARM MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING STRATOCU WILL LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
CONVECTION PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TERMINALS. IF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS...TAFS WILL BE AMENDED. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WEAKER CAP TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAL
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER DUE TO FREE
CONVECTION.

COLUCCI/ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
 AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 63.
 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
 BE THE PRIMARY RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS. A FEW OF THE
 STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE DOWN BURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL
 TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM
 TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD
 BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
 MPH. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ALONG AND WITH SMALL HAIL WILL
 ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
 MOUNTAIN VIEW TO WEST PLAINS FROM 5 PM TO 8 PM.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY