A strong upper ridge of high pressure built over the Mid-South during mid-July. Hot and humid conditions produced heat index readings above 105 degrees during this period.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A strong upper ridge of high pressure built over the Mid-South during mid-July. Hot and humid conditions produced heat index readings above 105 degrees during this period.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 14, 9:59 AM CST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS LATE THIS MORNING
INDICATE A SUBTLE BUT WEAK 700 MB SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
LATEST KNQA WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST HALF HOUR HAVE
BEGUN TO SHOW SOME ISOLATED RETURNS AS DAYTIME HEATING IS
INITIATING ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED SURFACE
BASED PARCELS BASED ON (95/73) YIELDS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 3500-4000 J/KG...LIS BETWEEN -3 TO -6 AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.6. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
TENNESSEE RIVER ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WHERE 700 MB TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER ALOFT. THINK MOST IF
NOT ALL ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C 12Z THIS MORNING SHOULD TRANSLATE
TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO ADD ISOLATED POPS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF FORECAST INCLUDING HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.
UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.
CJC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010/
UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 309 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010/
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. RECENT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR HUMIDITY
VALUES TO REMAIN HIGH. GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN TO MORE REASONABLE
NUMBERS AT LEAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S
WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR THURSDAY...GUIDANCE NUMBERS MAY STILL BE TOO
HIGH. RIDGE WILL BE BREAKING DOWN ON THURSDAY AND WITH THE WET
GROUND THINK 98 OR 99 DEGREES IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO REACH EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WHERE THE RIDGE WILL BE THE STRONGEST.
WILL GO JUST UNDER WITH 96 OR 97 ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 70S WHICH WILL PRODUCE HEAT
INDICES IN THE 107 TO 109 DEGREE RANGE. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT
WILL BE SO ISOLATED IN NATURE WILL NOT ADD MENTION IN THE
FORECAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
DRIFT SOUTH FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FIRE ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND PUSH SOUTH. SOME
OF THESE STORMS COULD SKIRT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. MAY BUMP UP POPS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE EXPECT ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CWA
STAYS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION PRODUCING BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN OFF AND ON DURING THE
PERIOD. TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT EXACT TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES AS
MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME KEEPING CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN.
RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WOULD BE THE BEST CHANCE
AS THE REMNANT FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA IN ADDITION TO A
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. MAY BUMP UP POPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE WILL CARRY 30 POPS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE CARRIED
INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO POOL ALONG THE REMNANT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND VERY WELL COULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER BUT EVEN WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES COULD STILL REACH ABOVE 105. FOR
NOW WILL LEAVE ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK OVER THE CWA. CHANCES
FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 POPS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.
KRM
AVIATION...
12Z TAFS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT ANY SITE THROUGH
18Z...BUT DID NOT MENTION IN TAF WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE OF
OCCURRENCE. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 05Z AT KMKL
WHERE THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AFTER
09Z. OTHER TAF SITES MAY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS 10-12Z.
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHRA/TSRA NEAR TAF SITES NEARLY ANYTIME...BUT
CHANCES OF DIRECTLY AFFECTING SITE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...TOO LOW
TO MENTION EVEN A CB GROUP.
MBS
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 95 78 97 80 / 10 10 10 20
MKL 94 74 96 74 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 96 76 98 77 / 10 10 10 40
TUP 95 74 97 76 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1119 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-151200- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 1119 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO ARKANSAS RIPLEY MISSISSIPPI. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. LITTLE RELIEF WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES. THE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THEREFORE HEAT ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
Heat index readings reached between 105-109 degrees in the afternoon and evening hours.
Heat index readings reached between 105-109 degrees in the afternoon and evening hours.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, July 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 249984, 249985.