Drought in Minnesota, June 1 to 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

.UPDATE...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA WHERE
PCPN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ELSEWHERE TO
ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/

UPDATE...CHANGED ORIENTATION OF POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT ACTIVITY
PER KDLH 88D. REST IF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. AROUND 18Z AND LATER TUESDAY...COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS. KEPT
CIGS/VSBYS VFR FOR NOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010/

DISCUSSION...
THRU THU...
MAIN WEA FEATURE FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSED UPR LOW OVR CN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES MOVG E AND BECMG AN OPEN TROF BY TUE MRNG...THEN
BEING REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING BY THU AFTN. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CFNT THRU NRN MN ON TUE...REACHING NW WI BY THE
TIME OF MAX HTG TUE AFTN. SFC BASED CAPES FOR THAT AREA REACH TO
NEAR 1000 J/KG...WITH LI/S IN THE -5 TO -6 RANGE. WITH SUFFICIENT
LIFT...MSTR...DIURNAL HTG...AND INSTAB...SVR TSTMS BECM A PSBLTY.
SEE LATEST SWODY2 FOR MORE DETAILS ON SVR POTENTIAL. OTHW...EXPECT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO ENTER OUR CWA THIS AFTN...PROGRESS SEWD ON
TUE...THEN EXIT THE AREA TUE NGT. WED SHUD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART
AS HIGH PRESS MOVES IN BEHIND THE FNT. THU REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFS REGARDING RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH. GFS/NAM KEEP HIGH FIRMLY IN PLACE OVR OUR CWA ON
THU...WHEREAS ECMWF/GEM BRING STRONG SFC LOW MUCH CLOSER TO US. WED
NGT/THU GRIDS ALREADY HAD MENTION OF SHRA OVR OUR ERN CWA...SO LEFT
THAT AS IS FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE NOT VERY HIGH.

THU NITE THRU MON...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...WITH SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WE LEANED
HEAVILY TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR FORECAST DETAILS.

WE DID NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST MUCH...AND HAVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER...BUT TOO TOUGH TO PICK OUT WHICH ONES AT THIS
POINT...AND DON'T WANT TO START FLIP-FLOPPING AS CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING INDIVIDUAL FEATURES IN ZONAL FLOW IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
SHOWERS ALREADY DEVELOPING BETWEEN FOSSTON AND FERGUS FALLS AND
WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF THUNDER DEVELOPS. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AERODROMES. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL TO MVFR IN ANY
HEAVIER SHOWER OR TS. DID NOT ACCOUNT FOR THIS IN ANY TEMPO GROUP
IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT IS LOW TRYING TO
PINPOINT LOCATION OF THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. BROAD BRUSHED LATER
PERIOD OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST AS LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG
STALLED OUT FRONT OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF TS AFTER 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  50  74  45 /  10  10  50  20
INL  76  49  65  40 /  30  70  30  10
BRD  80  49  75  47 /  10  20  60  20
HYR  76  49  79  50 /  10  10  50  50
ASX  76  50  76  49 /  10  10  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
225 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN...WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

LSZ121-140>148-011030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
225 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MINNESOTA NEAR SHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVER THE WISCONSIN
NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND AGAIN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASE
CHECK THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

04

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)