Heavy Rain in Maryland, March 29, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
900 PM EDT SUN MAR 28 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY. THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST TO A POSITION OVER LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWING AN OCCLUDED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SFC OVER OHIO...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT/BNDRY DRAPED ACRS
CNTRL NC...NNE INTO THE VA PIEDMNT. THIS IS WHERE HVY RAIN...AND
TSTMS FARTHER SOUTH HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS EVENING. SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO STRG SSE BNDRY LAYER FLOW AND A STRONG SLY JET
BETWEEN 800-900 MB. FOR AKQ CWA...SO FAR WE HAVE REMAINED JUST TO
THE NE OF THE STRONGER SEVERE STORMS (WHICH HAVE BEEN CONFINED
OVER NC WHERE SOME STORM DAMAGE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED (SEE RDULSRRAH
FOR DETAILS). PRECIP HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER PAST
1-2 HRS OVER THE PIEDMNT SO HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HVY RAIN WORDING TO
THE FCST (STILL NOT SEEING RATES SUFFICIENT FOR WIDESPREAD
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING SO NO WATCHES WILL BE ISSUE ATTM).

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...LOCALLY HVY RAIN POSSIBLE ALL AREAS
WITH THE OTHER CONCERN BEING HOW FAR NE DO THE TSTMS MAKE IT? SO
FAR TSTMS HAVE GNLY BEEN WEAKENING AS THEY APPRCH OUR W AND SW
ZONES. HOWEVER EXPECT AT LEAST ELEVATED ISOLATED CONVECTION PER
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES ON THE NAM12 AND RUC TO MAKE TO ABOUT
THE I-95 CORRIDOR PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL KEEP THE SCHC
TSTMS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITY (LI AND CAPES) AND TORNADO PARAMETERS (EHI,AND SIG
TOR INDICES) OFF THE NAM/RUC SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT WOULD STAY
MAINLY OUT OF OUR CWA...BUT IT IS A CLOSE CALL AND WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE TRENDS IN THE BNDRY...IF DEW PTS ARE ABLE TO INCREASE
OVER SRN VA AND NE NC AFTER MIDNIGHT...THESE ZONES WILL
POTENTIALLY SEE SOME SVR STORMS.

MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT GNLY IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOWERED THEM IN THE
PIEDMNT TO THE MID/UPR 40S AS INITIALLY DRY AIR ALLOWED THEM TO
FALL FAST THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HVYST PCPN MOVES TO THE COAST BY MON AFTRN AS SCNDRY S/W MOVES N FROM
NC OB THEN INTO VA CAPES AFTR 18Z. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS FROM
CHES BAY ON E. OTW...ALTHOUGH TSCTNS INDCT ENUF WRAP ARND MSTR ARND
RGN TO CONT LIKELY POPS...BUT INTENSITY OF ANY SHWRS BECMG LIGHTER.
HIGHS MON 60-65.

THE SCNDRY LOW TRACKS N TO A PSN OFF CAPE MAY BY 12Z TUE. PLNTY OF
MSTR PROGGED ACROSS RGN TO PRODUCE CHC POPS MOST AREAS...LIKELY POPS
ACROSS NRN CNTYS CLOSER TO THE LOW. CAA ON NW WNDS ALLOWS COOLER AIR
TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. LOWS IN THE 40S.

LOW PULLS FRTHR NE AND AWAY FROM RGN TUE. STILL ENUF MSTR ARND TO
CONT CHC POPS MOST AREAS DRNG THE MORN AND WELL INTO THE AFTRN HRS
ACROSS NRN NECK AND ERN SHORE AREAS. COOLER WITH HIGHS U50S-L60S.

HIGH PRS TO THE S DRYS OUT AIRMASS TUE NITE AND WED. DCRG CLDNS XPCT
TUE NITE. LOWS U30-L40S. M SUNNY & WRMR WED. HIGHS 60-65 NR THE WTR.
NR 70 W OF CHES BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NW FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM DVLPS ON WED. WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS
DVLP (ESP INLAND) AS A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CONUS
LATE WK AND INTO THE WKND. UTILIZING 100-85H THICKNESS VALUES...HAVE
WENT ABV GUIDANCE THU AND INTO THE WKND OVER INLAND AREAS. AFTN
SEABREEZES ON TAP THU-FRI ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST/ERN SHORE BUT TEMPS
INLAND SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPR 70S TO LOW 80S. WITH FULL SUN
ANTICIPATED...COULD SEE TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPR 80S WRN HALF OF THE
CWA FRI-SAT AS LARGE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FURTHER INTO THE RGN.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED ALONG THE PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...MAINLY JUST
W OF RIC. THIS PCPN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT...NOT REACHING
THE COASTAL AREAS UNTIL WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDS WILL LOWER
AFTER PCPN BEGINS WITH IFR CONDS DEVELOPING BY MON MRNG. TSTMS ARE
MOST LIKELY IN SE PORTIONS IN THE MRNG AND INCLUDED CB MENTION AT
PHF ORF AND ECG. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO NORTHEAST OVER RIC AND SBY ON MON AND TO EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OVER SE PORTIONS. FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO THE NAM FOR THE WIND
FORECASTS.

AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR AND OCNL IFR CONDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND EARLY TUE. THE WEATHER
GRADUALLY IMPROVES LATER TUE WITH VFR EXPECTED WED AND THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW.

&&

.MARINE...
CA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TNT AND INTO MON OVER ALL WATERS AS A
STRONG S/SE FLOW CONTINUES TO DVLP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM
THE SSW. LOOK FOR GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS THROUGH MON AM...ESP NEAR AROUND
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. HAVE ADDED VSBY RESTRICTIONS WRDG OF 1-3 SM
MILES...GNRLY IN PRECIP ACTIVITY.

AS COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE RGN MON AM...COULD SEE A BAND/LINE
OF SHRA...EMBEDDED TSRAS PUSH OVER THE WATERS. THIS COULD MAKE FOR
GUSTS AOA 34 KTS TO OCCUR WITH ACTIVITY. LATE TNT/TMRW...SMW'S
STATEMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. AS LOW PRES PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NE ALONG
THE MID ATL COAST...WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE CTRK SND BY MON
EVE.

LULL IN WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA ANTICIPATED OVER THE BAY MON EVE
BEFORE NW CAA PUSH DVLPS OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN W/IN 12 HRS. WILL KEEP THINGS SIMPLIFIED AND
EXTEND SCA THRU TUE EVE.

SEAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN AOA 5FT THRU TUE
EVE...BUT LIKELY NEEDED BEYOND CURRENT ENDING TIME.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
S/SE WINDS INCREASE TNT AND INTO MON AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SW. WITH ENTERING A FULL MOON PHASE...TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE
ANTICIPATED TO RISE TO 1-1.5 FT DURING HIGH TIDES ON MON. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR WATERS LEVELS TO RISE NEAR MINOR FLOODING OVER THE NRN
SECTIONS OF THE BAY/COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE HEAVILY BIASED TWRDS
THE GFS AND IS ON THE MORE EXTREME CASE OF OTHER SOLNS.
THEREFORE...WILL WAIT ANOTHER MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON
POSTING A HEADLINE...IF NEEDED.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-
     652-654-656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...CCW
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...CCW

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