Hail in Maryland, April 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
327 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING WARM FRONT, LOCATED OVER THE DELMARVA WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND OFF
THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AND BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWED VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ACRS THE
REGION, BUT MORE IS ON THE WAY. A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACRS THE
DELMARVA AND EXTREME SRN NJ AND IS SLOWLY MOVING NWD. THIS FRONT
IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE
WMFNT EXTENDD EWD FROM A VERY STRONG LOW IN THE OH VLY.  SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN AND INTO
THE EVENING, MAINLY ACRS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE ERN SHORE OF MD, ALL OF DE AND
SERN PA AND SRN NJ (GENERALLY S AND E OF I-95) IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW
60S BEHIND THE WMFNT, THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE.

ANY TSTMS SHOULD DECREASE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, BUT
ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN IS FCST TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS A VORT MOVS
ALG THE FRONT.

WITH A CLOUDY SKY VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE AND RIDING DEW POINTS, DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH OF A DROP IN TEMPS OVERNIGHT. MOS GUID WAS GENLY ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL MOVE EWD ON MONDAY AND WEAKEN. AS THE
LOW MOVES THROUGH, RAIN IS PSBL AT VIRTUALLY ANY TIME. IT WON'T BE
RAINING THE ENTIRE DAY, BUT CERTAINLY TH RE WILL BE ON AND OFF
SHOWERS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE LOW IS OFF THE COAST, BUT WITH THE H5
TROF STILL OVER THE REGION, CONDS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED. ON
TUESDAY, THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SWINGS THROUGH, BUT THE MAIN UPR
LOW REMAINS OVER SERN CANADA. THE UPR LOW FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE E
ON WEDNESDAY AND HGTS BEGIN TO RISE.

THERE WILL STILL BE PERIODS OD RAIN TUESDAY, BUT HOPEFULLY THINGS
LOOK TO DRY OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY LOOKS DRY ATTM.

WITH A LOT OF CLOUD COVER AND A COLD UPR LOW ALOFT, EXPECT TEMPS
TO BE AOB NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG NWLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BEHIND THE LOW.

QPF AMTS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH LIGHTER QPF AMTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, GENLY BETWEEN
0.10 AND 0.25 INCHES. THESE AMTS DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH, OF COURSE, COULD RAISE AMTS LOCALLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOULD START OFF FAIRLY NICE
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH AND WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE HIGH. THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF FRIDAY. HOWEVER, LATE FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT. SATURDAY WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WARM FRONT AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON SATURDAY, WE
MAY HAVE SOME SHOWERS, POSSIBLY EVEN THUNDERSTORMS, DEVELOP WITH THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A
COLD FRONT MAY DROP DOWN INTO OUR AREA AND STALL EITHER RIGHT OVER
TOP OF THE AREA, OR VERY CLOSE. THEREFORE, SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS, WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN
THOUGH PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE FORECAST EACH DAY, IT'S ONLY A 20 TO
30 PERCENT CHANCE, SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A COMPLETE
WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED MAY START OUT A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO WARM EACH DAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE PERIOD AND COULD BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A WARM FRONT RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT, POSSIBLY PUSHING SOUTH A BIT THIS EVENING. THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND, WHICH HAS KEPT THE CEILINGS
FAIRLY LOW TODAY WITH SOME FOG AFFECTING THE AIRPORTS. NOT MUCH
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE AN EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WHERE THE FRONT SETTLES BECOMES IMPORTANT
AS THERE IS SOME DRIER AIR BEHIND IT AND HIGHER CEILINGS. FOR NOW,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THAT MUCH DRY AIR WILL REACH THE TAF SITES AND
WE HAVE KEPT THE CEILINGS LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SEEING AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER DECK AROUND 1000FT. A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS REMAINS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDER TO OCCUR AS ALL SITES ARE IN AN AREA
OF SLIGHT RISK FOR TODAY, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KABE AND KTTN, WHICH
ARE IN A GENERAL RISK FOR THUNDER. THERE IS DECENT INSTABILITY ALOFT
WHICH HAS BROUGHT MORE CONFIDENCE TO THE THUNDER ASPECT OF THE
FORECAST AND THEREFORE WE HAVE INCLUDED CBS IN THE CURRENT TAFS.

OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT MAKES LITTLE PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT DAY, KEEPING THE LOW
CEILINGS AND VARYING VISIBILITIES/FOG ACROSS THE TAF SITES. THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY, MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND IMPROVING
FLYING CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS AND A SLOW
PROGRESSION NORTHWARD IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL IMPACT THE WIND
DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO REMAIN SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY.

SEAS ARE UP TO AROUND 5 FT AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS /44009 AND 44065/
AND WITH A CONTINUES ONSHORE FLOW WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN THIS WAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEREFORE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TO 8PM MONDAY. THE SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY IS MAINLY FOR BUILDING SEAS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH NO
ADVISORY ON DELAWARE BAY AS THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND SLIDE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A
MORE NORTH OR NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING FULL MOON WILL
ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HIGH TIDE
CYCLES. DEPARTURES LOOK TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MONDAY
MORNINGS HIGH TIDE. MONDAY EVENINGS HIGH TIDE IS THE HIGHER HIGH
TIDE OF THE DAY AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR
AT THAT TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...NIERENBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...MEOLA
MARINE...MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

NJZ001-007>010-012>015-PAZ054-055-061-062-069-260300-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-BUCKS-
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ450>455-260300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-260300-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE DELAWARE BAY TONIGHT, OTHERWISE, NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ016>027-PAZ060-067-068-070-071-260300-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-
OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-
MONTGOMERY-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ002>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-260300-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-
512 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 105 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE AND NORTHEAST MARYLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
456 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-252200-
CAROLINE MD-DELAWARE BEACHES DE-INLAND SUSSEX DE-KENT MD-KENT DE-
NEW CASTLE DE-QUEEN ANNE'S MD-TALBOT MD-
456 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CAROLINE...KENT...NEW CASTLE...
QUEEN ANNE'S...SUSSEX AND TALBOT COUNTIES...

AT 453 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CENTERVILLE TO 9 MILES EAST OF GEORGETOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR REHOBOTH BEACH...LEWES...
HOUSTON...HENLOPEN ACRES AROUND 505 PM...HENDERSON...BARCLAY...
SANDTOWN...GOLDSBORO AROUND 510 PM...MARYDEL AND TEMPLEVILLE AROUND
515 PM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS.

AMC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
540 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

DEZ002-NJZ021>025-027-252245-
ATLANTIC NJ-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY NJ-CAPE MAY NJ-
COASTAL ATLANTIC NJ-CUMBERLAND NJ-KENT DE-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON NJ-
540 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ATLANTIC...BURLINGTON...CAPE
MAY...CUMBERLAND AND KENT COUNTIES...

AT 534 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DOVER TO 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE MAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WILDWOOD CREST...LITTLE CREEK AROUND
545 PM...SCOTCH BONNET...NEWPORT AROUND 600 PM...CEDARVILLE...
MILLVILLE AROUND 615 PM...SOUTH VINELAND...VINELAND AROUND 630 PM...
MAYS LANDING AND ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 645 PM.

EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE STORMS.

AMC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
906 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

DEZ001-002-NJZ016-017-021-260200-
CUMBERLAND NJ-GLOUCESTER NJ-KENT DE-NEW CASTLE DE-SALEM NJ-
906 PM EDT SUN APR 25 2010

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM MARYLAND...

AT 901 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A A
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY...HEADING EAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING THROUGH NEW CASTLE AND KENT COUNTIES IN DELAWARE BETWEEN 9
AND 930 PM...THEN THROUGH SOUTHERN SALEM COUNTY BETWEEN 915 PM AND
930 PM.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

JJM