Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, May 21, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA HAS
ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ML
CAPES HAVE NOW CLIMBED TO AROUND 1000 J/KG ALONG THE INDIANA/OHIO
BORDER. AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO PIVOT INTO OUR AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST. PCPN SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
WEST...TAPERING DOWN TO LIKELY IN THE EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT MODELS
ARE HANGING ON TO SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITIES ALL THE WAY THROUGH
12Z . WILL THEREFORE KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL ATTM AS WIND
FIELDS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. THAT BEING SAID...IF ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY CAN GET INTO OUR WESTERN FA BEFORE WE BEGIN TO LOSE SOME
OF OUR BETTER INSTABILITIES...WET BULB ZERO LEVELS ARE CONDUCIVE
FOR SOME HAIL...AND SUPPOSE SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR SOME BACK BUILDING WITH THE STORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SO
FLOODING COULD ACTUALLY BECOME A BIGGER CONCERN THEN HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME LINGERING INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO PERSIST ON INTO
SATURDAY. EXPECT PCPN THREAT TO TAPER OFF FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE DAY AS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS EAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL THEN PUSH IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST WE
BEGIN OT DRY OUT...BUT WILL TREND HIGHS TOWARD THE WARMER MAV
GUIDANCE FOR SUNDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN
PINCH OFF INTO ONTARIO BY MONDAY. SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF ONTARIO AND NEW YORK AS WELL...BUT WITH WESTWARD-MOVING
MOISTURE FLOW AROUND ITS SOUTH EDGE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
GENERAL PATTERN IS PRETTY WELL IN AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/GEFS AND
ECMWF.

DESPITE THE DECENT HEIGHTS GENERALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO LIMIT THIS TO 20 POPS IN
DIURNAL PERIODS BASED ON A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING. SHOULD
ALSO BE NOTED THAT WINDS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THE COLUMN...SO
SHEAR MAY NOT BE HIGH...AND STORM MOTION MAY BE SLOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY BE PRETTY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMALS. MONDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER
THAN SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY MAYBE A GENERAL WARMING OF A DEGREE OR SO
EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW...ALONG
WITH WEAK TO SLIGHTLY MODERATE INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP A THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH ONCE A
SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT PASSES BY. AVIATORS CAN EXPECT MVFR
CIGS/VSBSYS IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST BEHIND THE OCCLUDED
FRONT. AS A RESULT...MVFR/LOCL IFR VSBYS AND IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE TAFS. VSBYS
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z WITH CIGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR
BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO MIST/FOG.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HICKMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>096-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-221545-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.

KYZ097>100-OHZ045-046-054>056-063>065-073-074-079>082-088-221545-
BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-HOCKING-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
1133 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

KYZ091>093-OHZ077-212115-
BOONE KY-CAMPBELL KY-KENTON KY-HAMILTON OH-
441 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2010

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN HAMILTON...KENTON...
CAMPBELL AND BOONE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 439 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRACHT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER IS
EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT
IN PONDING WATER ON ROADWAYS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE AFFECTED INCLUDE...WALTON...
INDEPENDENCE...ELSMERE...ERLANGER...EDGEWOOD...CRESTVIEW HILLS...
LAKESIDE PARK...TAYLOR MILL...CRESCENT SPRINGS...FORT MITCHELL...
VILLA HILLS AND COVINGTON.

ALSO...PINER...ATWOOD...RICHWOOD...BANK LICK...RICEDALE...WHITE
TOWER...LATONIA LAKES AND RYLAND HEIGHTS ARE NEAR THE PATH OF THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT. IF THIS STORM BECOMES
STRONGER...THEN A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3881 8470 3928 8451 3919 8429 3879 8453

HATZOS