Hail in Kentucky, May 21, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES...WITH COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHWARD INTO SEMO. THE BACK EDGE
OF THE DEW POINT PACKING AND WESTWARD WIND SHIFT HAD JUST ENTERED
THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE PAH FA AROUND NOON. LATEST LAPS DATA
INDICATE CAPES AROUND 1K J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF FRONT.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIS AROUND -2 AND MID 60 DEW POINTS SURGING UP
THE MISS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER WAS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
DESTABILIZATION. FORECAST SOUNDING FROM THE 12Z GFS AND NAM SUGGEST
CAPE RANGING FROM 1-2K J/KG WET BULB ZERO ABOVE 10K FEET. 0-3KM SRH
STAYS BELOW 150 M2S2. THEREFORE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FOR WIND OR
POSSIBLY HAIL. SINCE STABILITY SETS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST BELIEVE
THE THREAT IS LIMITED TO THE SLGT RISK OUTLOOK AREA ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND EAST PORTIONS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION...KEEPING US DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEK...KEEPING TEMPS FLIRTING WITH 90
DEGREE MARK. MID 60 DEW POINTS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA AS WELL
MAKING FOR SUMMER TIME CONDITIONS. ALSO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST IS PROGGED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD. THIS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL.

OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS SKY COVER AND DEW POINTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. REFLECTED VCSH/VCTS AT KPAH/KOWB/KEVV TAF SITES.
OTHERWISE VFR SCT-BKN CIGS WITH OCNL MVFR EARLY IN THE AFTN.
END CONVECTIVE CHANCES AFT 00Z-01Z...WITH WSW WINDS GOING
LIGHT. HINTED AT FOG LATE TONIGHT PER LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS.
WILL NOT BRING VSBYS DOWN TOO LOW AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
306 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-221000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
306 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY EAST OF A
CARMI ILLINOIS TO MAYFIELD KENTUCKY LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE DAYTIME HEATS UP...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
COULD FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD.
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON A FEW AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON A FEW AREA RIVERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WILL
RESULT IN A REQUEST FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION.