Hail and Damaging Wind in Kentucky, May 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE DISCUSSION
SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE 330 AM PRODUCT ISSUANCE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH DAILY CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT SLICING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER SOUTHWEST INTO THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL SLOW TO A CRAWL
AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY TODAY. UP
TO THIS POINT...MAIN CONCERN WAS THAT DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEW DEVELOPMENT
OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY IN THE LAST HOUR...THIS COULD THROW A MONKEY
WRENCH INTO THE AFTERNOON THINKING. FOR NOW...WILL MAINTAIN HIGHER
CHANCES OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY BOTH MORNING AND AFTERNOON...TAPERING
TO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THOSE LOOKING FOR A NICE WEEKEND WILL BE SORELY DISAPPOINTED...THAT
IS IF DRY AND SUNNY IS TO YOUR LIKING. A LOOK AT THE CONVECTION
ALREADY FIRING FROM OKLAHOMA NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI IS A SIGN OF
OUR WEEKEND FORECAST. DRY WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY TAKE HOLD FRIDAY
EVENING...BUT AMPLE MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. IT
IS LIKELY THAT MODELS ARE OVERDOING QPF...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THEIR
TRACK RECORD OVER THE PAST WEEK. HOWEVER...AN AVERAGE OF AN INCH OF
RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AT LEAST A
COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY APPEARS
SLATED FOR THE SUNDAY THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY TIME FRAME. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN DURING THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL
FINALLY ARRIVE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE FRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS MADE IT THROUGH ALL TAF SITES...AND SOME
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR/LOW MVFR CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DANCING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COULD SEE THE LOW CEILINGS COME AND GO THROUGH MID-MORNING.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE/SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH INTO THE REGION. NOT CERTAIN
WHETHER THE EXISTING CONVECTION WILL MOVE/SPREAD INTO THE AREA...OR
WHETHER THE NEXT ROUND WILL DEVELOP ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
EXISTING ACTIVITY. CANNOT RULE OUT THUNDER...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION
CB IN THE TAFS STARTING MID-MORNING AT KCGI AND BY 18Z IN THE EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY 00Z. MUCH OF
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION MAY REACH KCGI AND KPAH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
451 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-151000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
451 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE
REGION THIS MORNING...BECOMING CONFINED TO MAINLY WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME SEVERE. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

AFTER A DRY EVENING...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH WEEKEND DAYS AND MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PEAK SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EARLY
MONDAY. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST IN SOME AREA BASINS. REFER TO THE
LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN KENTUCKY AND FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.