Wildfire in Kentucky, March 19, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
OVER THE FA. A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
LINED UP WELL WITH VISIBLE SAT CLOUD COVER.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS CONTINUE YET AGAIN TO SLOW THE TWO STORM
SYSTEMS DOWN. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT THE SAT AFTN CHC GOING WITH THE
HELP OF HEATING MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE OHIO RIVER. SAT EVENING
HOWEVER SHOWS A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. KEPT
CHC ACROSS ENTIRE AREA BUT BACKED OFF QPF TO WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WHICH LINES UP WITH HPC GUIDANCE WELL. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
STORM SYSTEM NEARS THE AREA INCREASE POPS AND QPF BUT STILL LEAVE
LITTLE IN THE NORTHEAST. THEN SUNDAY WENT CAT WITH POPS AND SOME OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH IN SIX HOURS. NOW FOR
MONDAY HAVE SLOWED THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND KEPT POPS GOING
INTO MONDAY. THIS ALSO PROMPTED A LATER ARRIVAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM
AND PULLED POPS WED AND WED NGT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO END UP
SLOWING THIS NEXT SYSTEM DOWN AS TIME NEARS. THIS SEEMS TO BE THE
COMMON THREAD WITH MODELS VS REALITY. THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE THINGS
THROUGH FAST LIKE A WINTER FLOW EVEN THOUGH REALITY IS A BIT SLOWER.

AS FOR TEMPS WITH THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE STORM THIS WEEKEND...WAS
ALLOWED TO KEEP WARMER TEMPS IN SAT. BROUGHT IN THE COLDER TEMPS
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE TWEAKED THE LATER PERIODS TO REFLECT HPC AND
NEIGHBORS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS WILL COME INTO THE AREA SATURDAY DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSIST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
430 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-201000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
430 AM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MANY POINTS ALONG AREA RIVERS ARE AT OR NEAR FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER
TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND POSSIBLE
AGAIN ON SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT.
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT.

WHILE SOME WATER LEVELS ON SOME AREA RIVERS WILL BEGIN TO
FALL...WATER LEVELS ON OTHER AREA RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...FORCING SOME POINTS NEAR
OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.