Damaging Winds and Heavy Rain in Kentucky, June 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1055 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

.SHORT TERM.../THE REST OF TODAY/...UPDATED

14Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING SHUNTED SOUTH IN THE FACE OF AN APPROACHING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE UP IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. IN
THIS WARM AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE
LITTLE TROUBLE SUSTAINING THEMSELVES ONCE THEY GET GOING. THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM ILN AND OHX INDICATE LITTLE TO NO CAP AND MODERATE TO
HIGH INSTABILITY. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH CELLS NOW GOING UP OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND A WEAK WAVE PASSING ALOFT...HAVE DECIDED TO UP POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD TODAY...BUT THINK THAT THE FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 90 ARE STILL
DOABLE. WILL UPDATE THE MORNING PACKAGE TO EMPHASIS THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS WELL AS THE HIGHER POPS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE HWO TO
REMOVE THE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

THE PREVIOUS SHORT TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

/TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

TWO PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR DAYS 1-3 OF THE NEW FORECAST. FIRST...HOW
HOT WILL IT GET TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND WHEN WILL IT START RAINING?
THE PATTERN FROM THE PAST WEEK HAS REVEALED THAT THE MAVMOS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY TOO WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS. THE METMOS HAS BEEN MUCH
CLOSER TO ACTUAL TEMPS THAN THE MAV SO METMOS NUMBERS WERE USED ONCE
AGAIN FOR THE SHORT TERM TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THAT BEING SAID...DECIDED TO DECREASE DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY
AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE BOARD BY ABOUT A DEGREE TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH OBSERVED TRENDS. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...NAM12...SREF...AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL DIFFERED IN THEIR HANDLING OF SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY...WITH THE GFS AND SREF HAVING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE NAM12 AND CANADIAN
BOTH KEEP THINGS PRECIP FREE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRST MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
LATEST HPC QPF FORECAST ALSO LINES UP WITH THE NAM12 AND
CANADIAN...SO THOSE MODELS WERE GIVEN A BIT MORE CREDENCE THAN THE
GFS. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ONSET AND DURATION OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...NO
FEW IF ANY CHANGES WERE MADE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. ASIDE FROM ALL
THAT THE REST OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS WERE IN GOOD SHAPE ALREADY
WITH FEW IF ANY CHANGES NEEDED.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FEATURING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BENEATH A LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS...WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE
REGION THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE FOCUS FOR THE PERIOD
BECOMES TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART...STAYED CLOSE TO OR BELOW
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS WHICH WAS NOT TOO FAR OFF FROM THE
INHERITED FORECAST...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 80S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S THROUGHOUT THE VALLEYS AND A
LITTLE WARMER ON THE RIDGES.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TO 12Z/

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE LOZ/SME TO MVFR VSBY UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH HUMIDITY AND SOLAR HEATING TODAY WILL
SPARK ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL CARRY VCTS IN THE TAF FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
TSRA LATER TONIGHT AND WILL INVESTIGATE A POSSIBLE TIMING WHEN THE
SYSTEM GETS MORE ORGANIZED. CURRENT THOUGHTS HAS FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER
THIS TAF PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...AR/GREIF
LONG TERM....MB
AVIATION...DUSTY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1105 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281815-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
1105 AM EDT SUN JUN 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH TO NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES WITH LOWER 90S SEEN IN MANY OF THE VALLEYS. WITH A HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...HEAT INDICES WILL HIT THE MID 90S FOR A
FEW HOURS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOSE WORKING OUTSIDE ON SUNDAY ARE
ENCOURAGED TO TAKE IT EASY AND DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS DURING THE
HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH STRONG ONES POSSIBLE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.

AR/GREIF