A warm and unstable air mass, combined with a strong cold front, set the stage for severe weather across eastern Kentucky on August 14th. Strong to severe thunderstorms downed trees and power lines, caused flooding, and did damage to a few homes.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A warm and unstable air mass, combined with a strong cold front, set the stage for severe weather across eastern Kentucky on August 14th. Strong to severe thunderstorms downed trees and power lines, caused flooding, and did damage to a few homes.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 2:25 PM EST, 4 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED 18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ON SATELLITE...THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST ARE WANING AND A DECENT CU FIELD HAS SPROUTED OVER EAST KENTUCKY. AN APPARENT MCV IS SPINNING THROUGH SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THIS COULD HELP TO INITIATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE REGION AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE CWA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. RIGHT NOW...DESPITE CAPE TO 4000 J/KG...NO CAP...AND NON-EXISTENT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION THE STORMS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. ONCE AGAIN HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON EXCEEDED ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE LENGTH OF THIS CURRENT HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. BASED ON THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND DEWPOINTS SIMILAR TO TODAY IT APPEARS THAT HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR A TIME. THIS WILL NECESSITATE EXTENDING THE CURRENT EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS UPDATED PRODUCT AND A NEW HWO WILL BE SENT WITH THE ZONE ISSUANCE. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHUNT THE ABUSIVE RIDGE SOUTHWARD AS TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM WAS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS TREND AND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT THE TRENDS OF BOTH THE GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF APPEAR TO BE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL. ACCORDINGLY...WILL LEAN MOST HEAVILY TOWARD THE WEATHER SPECIFICS AS DEPICTED IN THE NAM FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE AN INTERESTING EVENING...PREGNANT WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS THE AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE. AN APPROACHING MCV/VORT STREAM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS WOULD THEN SPREAD EAST AS HINTED AT IN THE LATEST NAM12...RUC13 AND HRRR. HAVE TRIED TO DRAW A BAND OF HIGHER POPS TRAIPSING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCATTERED...MAINLY SHOWERS...CONVECTION OVER OUR FAR EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT. HAVE DROPPED POPS TONIGHT AND INCLUDED A HEALTHY DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE LATE. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS ONCE THOUGHT WOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO END THE WEEKEND WILL BE JUST APPROACHING THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT HAVE PUSHED THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER POPS BACK UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS DELAY SHOULD MEAN HIGHER TEMPS THEN CURRENT FORECAST...AND LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE COULD BE MCS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND THE CLOUDS OR REMAINS OF THIS COULD HURT OUR TEMPERATURE RISE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO PIN OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON SO HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SUNDAY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST PLACES. THESE TEMPERATURES...WHEN COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS EQUALLY HIGH AS TODAY...WILL MEAN HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST OF THE CWA. ACCORDINGLY...WILL EXTEND THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR ANOTHER DAY AND EXPIRE IT AT 8 PM SUNDAY. LATER THAT NIGHT THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT LIKELY ANY DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY WILL BE ABLE TO PROPAGATE EAST BY LATE EVENING SO HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA AFTER 03Z. AGAIN MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL BE HAD WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AND BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE IN THE VALLEYS. FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE FOLLOWED A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...INHERITED GRIDS...AND A NOD TO THE WARM MAV MOS. ONLY MADE VERY MINOR TWEAKS BASED ON TERRAIN AT NIGHT AS THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MITIGATE THE NORMAL RADIATIVE DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSEST TO THE MET NUMBERS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST. .LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPDATED EXTENDED BEGINS WITH MODELS SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS THROUGH DY4 TUESDAY. THEREAFTER SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT...WITH DIFFERENCES CENTERED ON AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS RIDING OVER A SUPPRESSED...AND SOMEWHAT FLATTENED SOUTHERN CONUS RIDGE. IN GENERAL...THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE 0Z ECMWF BEYOND DY4...GIVING THE ECMWF A BIT MORE CREDENCE. THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER...AND DEEPER WITH FIRST OF TWO TROUGHS THAT ROLL THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WITH THE HELP OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY DANCING OVER THE GULF COAST...A SECOND TROUGH PHASES WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE AND DEEPENS INTO A MORE SIGNIFICANT EASTERN CONUS TROUGH VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...OR JUST BEYOND. ATTM THIS TROUGH IS QUITE PROGRESSIVE WITH MODELS ADVERTISING THE RETURN OF A SHARP... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE A BIT BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE AVERAGE TO LOW...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO ANY PHASING THAT MIGHT OCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BREAK IN THE HEAT WAVE AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE CWA AND STALLS NEARLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CREATE A DECENT POP GRADIENT FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST DURING THE BULK OF THE FORECAST. A TROPICAL WAVE MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERLIES DIP SOUTHWARD AND SEND A SECOND COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...THIS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCALIZED HYDRO ISSUES. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERNS AND EVENTS. WITH SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE MID TERM...WENT AHEAD AND TIGHTENED UP THE POP GRADIENT ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WENT WITH AN INCREASED SOLID CHANCE POP CLOSER TO THE KY/TN/VA STATE LINES...AND A GENERALLY LOWER...SLIGHT CHANCE POP ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR. WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...WITH DAILY AND MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS PLAYING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE MUGGY. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ EXPECT CONVECTION TO KICK IN SHORTLY WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...A VCTS IS CARRIED IN ALL TAFS FOR THIS CONCERN. THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT A CONVECTIVE LINE...AS SEEN IN THE NAM12 AND HRRR WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD EVENING CROSSING INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. FOR THIS...HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP WITH VARIABLE GUSTS TO 25 KTS AND MVFR VIS/CIG. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE RAIN FALLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT FOG TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES TO SOME EXTENT LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR THIS HAVE BROUGHT JKL DOWN TO MVFR BETWEEN 10 AND 12Z WITH LOZ AND SME DOWN TO IFR VIA A TEMPO FROM 08 TO 12Z. FOR SUNDAY...HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS FOR REDEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE CWA. OUTSIDE OF THE VICINITY OF A THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && SHORT TERM...GREIF LONG TERM...RAY AVIATION...GREIF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 445 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-083-104-106-108-111-152345- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-WAYNE-ELLIOTT-MORGAN-WOLFE-LEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...MONTICELLO...SANDY HOOK... WEST LIBERTY...CAMPTON...BEATTYVILLE 445 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. THE STRONGEST OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE MAIN THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS WILL ALSO CONTAIN FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXTEND INTO THE NIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF EACH DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. KYZ080-084>088-107-109-110-112>120-152345- LAUREL-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-JOHNSON-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD- BREATHITT-KNOTT-OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LONDON...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN... WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...HARLAN... PAINTSVILLE...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...JACKSON...HINDMAN... BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...INEZ... PIKEVILLE 445 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE NIGHT. ANY OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO REMAIN HIGH...PRODUCING HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 FOR MOST LOCATIONS ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FAVORING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS OF EACH DAY AS THE FRONT STALLS IN OUR GENERAL VICINITY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY OBSERVED WIND DAMAGE...FLOODING OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH. ABE/GREIF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 723 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 KYZ044-050>052-059-060-150015- FLEMING-ROWAN-BATH-MONTGOMERY-MENIFEE-POWELL- 723 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM EDT SATURDAY EVENING... FLEMING... NORTHWESTERN ROWAN... BATH... MONTGOMERY... WEST CENTRAL MENIFEE AND NORTHWESTERN POWELL. AT 723 PM EDT...SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES WEST OF FAIRVIEW TO 21 MILES WEST OF WADES MILL...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES EAST OF CYNTHIANA TO LEXINGTON-FAYETTE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...COWAN AROUND 810 PM EDT...NEPTON AROUND 815 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN THESE AREAS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. RICHEY
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 91 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:55 UTC.
9 thunderstorm wind, 3 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The county dispatch office reported numerous trees down countywide.
The emergency management office reported that three trees were blocking the Happy Top Roadway and had to be removed 8 miles southwest of Irvine.
The county dispatch office reported numerous trees down countywide.
Water was reported over roads on S Hwy 27, N Hwy 1247, and Hwy 39 in the Somerset area. Reports indicated that 6 to 12 inches of water was either standing on or flowing across the aforementioned roads.
Trees were blown down in Haldeman.
The roof was blown off of a home on Old Ridge Road 5 miles southwest of Nancy.
Trees and power lines were blown down mainly in the Somerset area. Areas that received tree and power line damage included Slate Branch Rd south of Somerset, Hwy 1643 east of Somerset, Ferguson, and Bourbon Rd in Oakhill.
Power outages were reported in and around Somerset including along Hwy 27. Crews were still out at report issuance restoring power to residences and businesses around Somerset.
Numerous large tree limbs were blown down onto area roadways.
Power lines were blown down in Morehead.
The county dispatch office reported 3 to 4 feet of water over Welchburg Rd in Tyner. Heavy rain began falling around 920 pm. The water was still over the road as of 11 pm.
Some people had to be rescued from their homes due to rising flood waters in Beauty.
Numerous roads around the county were closed due to flood water flowing across them. This included Hwy 40.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 246195, 246218, 246219, 246200, 246197, 246202, 246205, 246207, 246209, 246212, 246211, 246221, 246216.