Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, May 25, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
130 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...
130 PM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST AND UPPER HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO A AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY AS PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW
MOVES SOUTH REMAINING OFFSHORE. ON FRIDAY THIS LOW AND LARGE UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ASHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE COUNTRY BUT
ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL FIGHT THE UPPER RIDGE RESULTING IN A
RATHER AMPLIFIED PATTERN.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TONIGHT WITH THE TAIL
END OF AN UPPER JET TO MOVE OVER THE AREA. TOUGH TO PINPOINT ANY
ONE AREA FOR PRECIP TONIGHT SO WILL HAVE TO BROAD BRUSH LOW CHANCE
POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MOS GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM
HAS BEEN DOING WELL IN OUR AREA THE PAST FEW WEEKS WITH REGARDS TO
FOG SO HAVE FOLLOWED IT AND INCLUDED FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA...BLENDING MOS GUIDANCE WITH RUC AND NAM VIS
FORECASTS.

LOW CLOUDS LINGER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VARIOUS
DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST IN
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST LOW AND HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST/EAST. PLENTY
OF SFC AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH WEAK CAP SUGGESTING MOSTLY
SOME SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE PROXIMITY TO BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM
APPROACHING TROUGH EXIST. STORM MOTIONS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH SO
LITTLE CHANCE OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY 75 TO 80 WEDNESDAY...WARMING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

FOR THE PERIODS SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY AS
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. MAIN ENERGY LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE BACKSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. A GENERAL ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE RETURN FLOW BRINGS
THERMAL RIDGE BACK INTO EASTERN COLORADO...FURTHER EAST PROXIMITY
TO SFC HIGH WILL LIMIT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES WHEN COMPARED TO
SUNDAY. FINALLY FOR TUESDAY...MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE UPPER
PATTERN WITH SOME TYPE OF WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THERMAL RIDGE
APPEARS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUGGESTING WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AM EXPECTING BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN
REGARD TO POSITION OF DYNAMICS WITH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL IMPACT
AREAL COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOMETHING WORTH
WATCHING AND HAS NOW MENTIONED IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

CONFIDENCE NOT REAL HIGH ON PRECIP CHANCES AFTER SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MOST OF THE MOISTURE/LIFT AND INSTABILITY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S SATURDAY...COOLING INTO THE 70S TO
PERHAPS LOW 80S SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1145 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE 18Z TAF...SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. INITIAL CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FEEL KGLD
HAS THE BETTER SHOT OF SEEING A DIRECT IMPACT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE PREVAILING PRECIP. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CLOSELY AND AMEND AS NEEDED. FOCUS THEN
SHIFTS TO POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/VLIFR CIGS/VSBY...ESPECIALLY AT KGLD.
NAM/RUC BOTH DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS/FOG BY AROUND
10Z. CONDITIONS LOOK LESS FAVORABLE AT KMCK SO HAVE MAINTAINED VFR
CIGS/VSBY. A RENEWED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AROUND 16Z TOMORROW FOR
BOTH TERMINALS.

FOLTZ

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1043 AM MDT TUE MAY 25 2010 /1143 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM CHEYENNE WELLS TO SHARON SPRINGS TO LEOTI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERYDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS
SATURDAY APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS.