Hail in Kansas, May 23, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

CONVECTION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND WINDS TOMORROW WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

FAIRLY MERIDIONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CONUS, WITH RIDGING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND TROUGHING IN THE WEST. ONE UPPER LOW WAS OVER
MT THIS MORNING AND WV LOOP SHOWS IT MOVING OFF INTO CANADA, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN UPPER LOW IS STILL SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AT THE MID LEVELS, THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS WERE TIGHT OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE BEST 850MB MOISTURE HAD BEEN SHUNTED OFF
TO THE EAST. AT THE SFC, A WEAK COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAD MOVED TO
JUST WEST OF DDC AS OF 15Z THIS MORNING, WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE LATEST SFC
OBS SHOW THAT THE FRONT IS STARTING TO LIFT BACK NORTH/WASH OUT,
WITH WINDS IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND DEWPOINTS RISING. A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES FROM OK, BUT HAVE REMAINED
FAIRLY WEAK.

SHORT FUSE COMPOSITE AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS HAVE PRETTY HEALTHY
CAPE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE 12Z NAM
WAS NOT VERY OPTIMISTIC WITH THE CAP BREAKING, BUT THE 18Z RUN
THAT HAS JUST STARTED COMING IN HAS LOWER CIN VALUES IN OUR WEST
AS THE SFC BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK NORTH, AND BREAKS OUT QUITE A BIT
OF PRECIP. THIS FITS WITH THE 12Z GFS FAIRLY WELL, ALONG WITH THE
UKMET AND HIGH-RES ECMWF. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG, THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE 0-1KM SRH IS NOT
THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT BULK SHEAR LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME HAIL. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP 30-40 POPS GOING, AND WILL ADJUST
FOR GOING RADAR TRENDS BEFORE LEAVING. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING BACK
TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE MOVING BACK IN, LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT OUT TOWARDS THE NEB
PANHANDLE TOMORROW, WITH THE SFC TROUGH STRENGTHENING ALONG THE CO
BORDER. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT WELL NORTH OF US, WITH
STRONG SOUTH WINDS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. RUC AND GUIDANCE VALUES
HAVE US GETTING TO ADVISORY CRITERIA, SO INCLUDED SOME HEADLINES
FOR ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THE UPPER TROUGH
EJECTING OUT WILL BRING GOOD LIFT FAIRLY EARLY, SO THUNDERSTORMS
MAY GET STARTED AROUND NOON OR EVEN EARLIER. SEVERITY WILL DEPEND
ON JUST HOW EARLY AND HOW MUCH HEATING WE WILL GET. WILL CONTINUE
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE DAY, AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. THE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MT/ND BORDER
MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL AGAIN START TO MOVE DOWN INTO
WESTERN KS. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN OUR NORTH AS THIS BOUNDARY
COMES DOWN, ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE UP IN NEB.
LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY
COOL, DIPPING INTO THE 50S. EASTERN LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL MAINLY SEE READING IN THE 60S.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA
ON TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO WASH OUT. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AREA AND ANY TINY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, POPS IN
THE 20-40 RANGE SEEM REASONABLE. THE HIGHS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
STAY AROUND 80, WHILE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY READINGS SHOULD GET
INTO THE UPPER 80S.

DAYS 3-7...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE MID
TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. IF ANYTHING...THE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AROUND
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME. BY NEXT WEEKEND A STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL HAVE MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
JET INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL HELP FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE AND
ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER.
THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION IS DIVERGING FROM THE ECMWF IN THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.  INTERESTINGLY...THE MAJORITY OF ITS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE TENDING TO MOVE THE SYSTEM EAST SO WILL TEND TO
FOLLOW THE MORE PROGRESSIVE IDEA OF THE ECMWF.

THE RESULT WILL BE A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE TIMING COULD
BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW RUNS...FOR NOW WILL INCREASE
POPS A BIT DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD AND ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WX GRIDS.

FOR WEEK TWO WILL GO WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIP.
ENSEMBLE MEANS TEND TO SHOW A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH/COOL FRONT.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW. AFTER DARK
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 25 KNOT RANGE.
SOME STRATUS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AT THE TAF
SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  69  84  63  83 /  30  30  20  30
GCK  67  85  56  82 /  30  40  20  30
EHA  65  84  52  83 /  30  30  20  20
LBL  67  86  60  84 /  30  40  20  30
HYS  67  84  62  83 /  40  30  30  30
P28  68  85  65  87 /  20  20  20  40

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/
MONDAY FOR KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>080-084>088.

&&

FN26/02/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
347 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-240900-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
347 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010 /247 AM MDT SUN MAY 23 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS AFTER 5 PM CDT, WEST OF
A LINE FROM HAYS TO DODGE CITY TO MEADE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONCENTRATE ALONG A DRY LINE CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST FROM COLORADO. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL RISK IS SMALL, IF ANY
STORM DOES INITIATE IT COULD QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY
PRODUCE HAIL. THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT, BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WITH MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A MINOR SHORT WAVE CROSSING OVERHEAD,
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MIGHT BE NEEDED FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEST OF A MEADE TO
DODGE CITY TO HAYS LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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