Flood and Hail in Kansas, May 18 to 19, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
325 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE 00Z UPPER AIR 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SITUATED
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. FARTHER WEST A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAD MOVED ONSHORE OVER CALIFORNIA AND WAS
CONTINUING EASTWARD WITH THE HELP OF A 110 KNOT JET AT 250 MB.
UVV WAS INCREASING OVER THE REGION AS THE WESTERN U.S. SYSTEM
APPROACHES. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT WAS MOST LIKELY BEING SUPPORTED
BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SPEED MAX SITUATED SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOWLY
ADVECTING BACK NORTH INTO THE REGION FROM CENTRAL TEXAS. A LOOP OF
THE RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS AN MCS WORKING ITS WAY EAST SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES.

A COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GOODLAND TO GARDEN CITY AND OUT OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THESE
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. UNLESS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
BEGINS TO DRASTICALLY INCREASE THINK THAT POPS IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY SHOULD COVER THEM. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS TODAY.
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PULL EVEN BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. BY MID AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND A DECENT
VEERING WIND PROFILE WE COULD SEE A FEW SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR ALTHOUGH THE GREATER THREAT FOR THAT MAY STAY
SOUTH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS THAT WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT.

THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF INTO AN
UPPER LOW THAT MOVES OUT INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD TAKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
TOWARD CENTRAL PARTS OF KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 3-7...

SEE LITTLE REASON TO MAKE BIG CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.  THE
NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO EASTERN
KANSAS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD.  THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH WILL
MOVE EAST, AND ANY LINGERING WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  FRIDAY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET AND
WARMER AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN BRIEFLY BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THE NEXT
BIG QUESTION IS HOW THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL AFFECT
WESTERN KS.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE,
EJECTING A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY.  THE ECMWF ALSO BRINGING A LEAD SHORTWAVE OFF TO OUR
NORTH, BUT KEEPS THE MAIN TROUGH FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION.  THE CANADIAN BRINGS A SHORTWAVE OUT ON SUNDAY.  SUCH
MINOR FEATURES WILL NOT BE HANDLED WELL BY ANY MODEL THIS FAR OUT.
GOING FORECAST HAS THE CWA DRY FOR SATURDAY, THEN SOME POPS FOR
STORMS FIRING ALONG THE DRYLINE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  SEE LITTLE
REASON AT THIS POINT TO CHANGE THAT.  MADE A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS AND WINDS TO TRY AND IMPROVE INTERSITE CONSISTENCY, BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDS.

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED TO GO UP IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, SO
WILL HAVE TO UPDATE KGCK AND KDDC WITH VCTS OR EVEN A PREVAILING
-TSRA MENTION IF THE LINE FILLS IN A BIT MORE.  PLENTY OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS, BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR AROUND 15-18Z,
BUT STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES OUT, SO WILL INCLUDE A CB MENTION
FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  54  64  52 /  50  70  60  40
GCK  65  52  64  50 /  50  70  60  40
EHA  70  52  72  50 /  50  50  50  20
LBL  68  53  72  50 /  50  60  50  30
HYS  67  54  62  51 /  40  70  70  60
P28  68  56  65  55 /  40  70  70  50

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
944 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

KSZ043-061>063-074>078-084>088-191000-
SCOTT-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-
MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-
944 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010 /844 AM MDT TUE MAY 18 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. STORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE
CITY AND ASHLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT SOUTHWEST OF A DIGHTON TO DOGE CITY TO ASHLAND LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ030-031-044>046-064>066-079>081-089-090-191000-
TREGO-ELLIS-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER-
944 AM CDT TUE MAY 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING. STORMS
THIS EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM DIGHTON TO DODGE
CITY AND ASHLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST KANSAS WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC