Hail in Kansas, June 6, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
238 AM CDT SUN JUN 6 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

00Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATED A WEAK 5H THERMAL TROF LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN CO WITH A 7H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM NC CO INTO WC
KS. THE BETTER CONVECTION WHICH WAS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
BEEN MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE AS THE WEAK 5H TROF
MOVED EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION
PRODUCED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS EARLY THIS MORNING IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THESE MODELS STILL HAVE A DECENT HANDLE OF THE
MOVEMENT OF THE 5H TROF AND LOCATION OF OUR MID LVL BAROCLINIC
ZONE. WILL THEREFORE FOLLOW THESE TRENDS AND SPREAD/KEEP SMALL
POPS FOR A FEW HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR NW/NRN CWA.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE INTO MUCH OF WRN KS AS A SFC-85H HIGHS BUILDS OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND CROSSES THE CNTL PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM EML
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO WRN KS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...GIVEN THE LLVL TEMPS AND UPSLOPE FLOW
PROGGED BELOW 85H LVL HAVE DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER
MET/NAM SOLUTION FOR HIGHS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE FAR W/SW CWA WHERE 85H-7H TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW IS PROGGED THE BE BETTER. BY LATE DAY
ACROSS THE SW CWA MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN AS A SE SFC FLOW
DEVELOPS. 00Z MON MU CAPES ARE PROGGED BY THE NAM TO RISE ABOVE
1500J/KG BUT AT THIS TIME NOT SEEING ANY GOOD UPPER LVL FORCING
PRESENT. DESPITE THIS AND WARM 7H TEMPS A FEW TSRA LATER THIS
EVENING ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER DO NOT THINK ANY STORM
WHICH DOES DEVELOP IN ERN CO LATE TODAY WILL LAST LONG ONCE THE
SUN GOES DOWN. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT OF
OUR WRN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT KEPT THE SILENT 10% POPS GOING FOR
OUR FAR WRN FEW COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST AND NORTH SOME ELEVATED
STORM MAY BE MORE OF AN ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS OUR MID LVL BAROCLINIC
ZONE AND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND THEN CNTL KS. 00Z
MODELS NOW ARE A MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH SPREADING THE WARM 7H TEMPS
INTO WRN KS SO NOW THIS BETTER FORCING IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE
WELL EAST AND NORTH OF THE AREA BY 06Z. AS A RESULT WILL TRIM POPS
BACK A LITTLE IN THE FAR E/NE AND FAVOR A DRY FORECAST HERE ALSO.

ON MONDAY THE MAIN FOCUS WILL CENTERED AROUND THE HEAT AS 85H-7H
TEMPS QUICKLY WARMUP AND MIXDOWN TEMPS ARGUE FOR HIGHS AT LEAST
AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE CWA. GFS STILL WAS THE WARMEST
MODEL WITH THE 85H-7H TEMPS. IF CORRECT HIGHS AROUND 105 MAY NOT
BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN OUR WRN CWA. AT THIS
TIME WILL NOT GO THAT WARM BUT WILL BUMP TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES....ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF DDC. THIS WILL PLACE
SEVERAL LOCATIONS AT OR NEAR THEIR RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS DATE. GIVEN
THIS AND THAT MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE HEAT INDEXS IN THE 100 TO 103
RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL INSERT A MENTION OF THIS HEAT IN THE
HWO.

DAYS 3-7...

A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH WESTERN KANSAS ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
KNOCK HIGHS BACK INTO A MORE REASONABLE RANGE COMPARED TO THE HEAT
FROM MONDAY. WE HAVE SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING FROM TUE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONT ON INTO WED WITH THE UPSLOPE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
PORTIONS OF SW KS AND THAT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. IT WILL STILL BE
RATHER WARM ON WED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THE HIGHS OF M80S-M90S THAT
WE HAVE GOING ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE AND WILL BE TOO HIGH
IF WE GET ANY UPSLOPE CLOUDINESS OR PRECIP LIKE THE EC SHOWS. THE
HEAT TURNS BACK ON FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AS A STRONG RIDGE
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE NATION IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE TROF
COMING ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. HIGHS FROM THU THROUGH SAT
WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE M90S TO N100 WITH VERY MILD LOWS IN THE
U60S TO M70S. THINK IT WILL BE TOO CAPPED FOR ANY CONVECTION AND
THUS POPS REMAIN ZEROED OUT THU-SAT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP COMES
AS THE PACIFIC TROF MOVES INLAND NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIMING OF THE TROF/FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS VARIES WITH THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE GFS SHOWING A RATHER NASTY FROPA LATE SAT WHEREAS THE EC
HOLDS OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT OR MONDAY. THE EC IS PROBABLY RIGHT AND
THAT IS STILL TOO FAR OFF TO ADD MUCH VALUE TO THE FORECAST SO WILL
LEAVE IT ALONE. -WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS AT ALL
TERMINALS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AM WATCHING ISOLD SHRA/TS COMING OUT OF COLORADO INTO FAR
WRN KS ATM. CONVECTION IS RUNNING INTO A MUCH MORE CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST AND THUS AM NOT EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO
MAKE IT TO ANY OF OUR TERMINALS, BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON. NE
SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SFC HIGH MOVES INTO ERN KS. -WRIGHT
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  87  66 101  73 /  10  10   0  10
GCK  86  66 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  90  68 102  71 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  89  68 102  72 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  84  63  98  71 /  20  20   0  20
P28  88  66  97  75 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/34/34