Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 22, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
230 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
229 PM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SEEN LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING
AND COLORADO IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL ASSIST IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM TRIBUNE TO HILL CITY AND
NORTON. THIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF VERY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND THE LOCATION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE SURFACE CONVERGENCE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION DUE TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOW APPROACHING
100 DEGREES. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED IN THIS AREA...NOW IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S. GIVEN THE T-TD SPREADS FEEL THAT STORMS WILL
BE HIGHER BASED WITH WIND BEING A SIGNIFICANT THREAT ALONG WITH
LARGE HAIL. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST.

FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER...INSTABILITY IS GREATER
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...HOWEVER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION REMAINS AT 00Z...SO LESS
CERTAINTY EXISTS IN THIS AREA FOR STORM COVERAGE...AT LEAST IN
OUR CWA.

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH NOW AFFECTING THE REGION
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...REACHING THE GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SHORT WAVE
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH INTO THE
CWA. THIS IN TURN PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS WED-THU.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT
ONCE AGAIN APPROACHES THE AREA BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

99
&&

.AVIATION...
1145 AM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE REGION EVEN AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TO IFR
OR BELOW DUE MAINLY TO A DECREASE IN VISIBILITIES AS A RESULT OF
HEAVY RAIN DIRECTLY UNDER ANY STORM. THE LIKELYHOOD OF ANY ONE
STORM PASSING DIRECTLY OVER EITHER THE GLD OR MCK TAF SITES ARE NOT
VERY HIGH...SO HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS VFR WITH A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF GLD AND MCK MAINLY BETWEEN 01Z-
06Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CLOUDS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS AFTER
ABOUT 09Z FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
ONCE STORMS DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED IF
IT APPEARS ANY STORMS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE TAF SITES.

LOCKHART
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1040 AM MDT TUE JUN 22 2010 /1140 AM CDT TUE JUN 22 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REIGNITE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A
FEW TORNADOES. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.