Hail in Kansas, June 17, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
333 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.  PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN.

BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE CWA AND HAS GONE PRETTY MUCH AS
EXPECTED...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OUT FROM THE ROCKIES AND
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO TREK
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH CURRENTLY LIES FROM NORTHEASTERN NEB
THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO WESTERN KS.  GOOD PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT HAVE KEPT IT MOVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY /ALONG WITH BRINGING
VERY GUSTY WINDS TO THE WEST/...BUT AS THAT TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
SHIFTING NE...THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THAT FRONT WILL LOSE MORE OF
ITS PUSH AND START TO SLOW DOWN.  LAPS DATA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST...BUT ALSO
STILL SHOWS A CAP ACROSS THE AREA...BUT EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND ITS JUST A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BEGINS TO EXPAND.

NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE THINKING FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AS
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING.  BRUNT OF THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE E/NE OF
THE CWA...ALONG THE FRONT AND WHERE THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL FORCING
WILL REMAIN...BUT STILL EXPECTING SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT INTO OUR CWA...IT WILL JUST TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO OVERCOME WHAT CAPPING REMAINS.  ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DO
DEVELOP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE
CWA...AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW FAR ALONG THE
FRONT THIS WILL FIRE...SO BEST POPS CONFINED TO AN AREA ROUGHLY
ALONG A HEBRON TO SMITH CENTER LINE.  PARAMETERS PRESENT CONTINUE TO
SHOW SEVERE WEATHER BEING A CONCERN THROUGH THE MID/LATE EVENING
HOURS...AND THOUGH HAIL/WINDS/HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT AN ISOLATED TOR CANT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...MAINLY
EARLY ON IN THE EVENT. NEAR/AFTER MIDNIGHT...SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO
HINT AT ANOTHER BATCH OF MORE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPS A BIT
FURTHER NORTH /LIKE I 80ISH AND NORTH/ AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP...DID
INCREASE POPS SOME BUT KEPT IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THERE IS STILL
QUITE A FEW DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS IN WHETHER IT ACTUALLY OCCURS
AND IF SO...TO WHAT EXTENT.  FEEL THAT IT WOULD BE SCT AT BEST...AND
A FEW COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE BUT MAIN SEVERE WX FOCUS WILL BE
WELL E/SE.

DID KEEP SOME LINGERING POPS GOING IN THE EAST INTO THE MORNING
HOURS ON FRIDAY...BUT EXPECT THAT MOST WILL BE DRY.  EXPECTING A
QUIET AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING THE ATMOSPHERE CAPPED OFF ONCE AGAIN.  AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...TODAYS FRONT LOSES ITS MAIN PUSH AND STALLS OUT...AND IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. EXACT LOCATION STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AS IT WILL DEPEND
SOME ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT NIGHT...WHICH ALONG WITH THE WEAK SFC FRONT AROUND AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING WITH THE LLJ NOSING IN FROM THE
SOUTH...WILL BRING YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL KEEP
SEVERE WORDING GOING IN THE HWO...WITH BEST CHANCES MAINLY CONFINED
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR FRIDAY...IS
A LITTLE TRICKY WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED IN THE AREA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...BUT COULD SEE HIGHS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH MID 80S IN THE NORTH TO MID 90S IN THE
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST SHOT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND WILL DROP OFF
AS THE WEEK WEARS ON. STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WRAPPING UP INITIALLY FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
AND REDEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM IN FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW NEAR THE FRONT RANGE...
AND ROLL EAST ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT. ONCE AGAIN...THE
PROSPECT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IS THERE
AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IRONICALLY...THE FAR SOUTHERN
CWFA MAY MISS OUT ON MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE STORM RISK AS THE
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING...AND SURGES
NORTH FROM THERE. REALLY WARM AIR...PROBABLY PRODUCING TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWEST CWFA BY SUNDAY.

NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE TRICKY...AS THE ECMWF STILL
TRIES TO BUILD THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH A BIT. ITS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS PREVIOUS RUNS...SO THE NORHTERN CWFA WILL STILL
BE ON THE EDGE OF WETNESS REGARDING POTENTIAL OF NIGHT TIME
THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN THE SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY
AND HOT...ESPECIALLY MONDAY/TUESDAY. A WEAKISH FRONT MAY
DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 AM CDT THU JUN 17 2010/

AVIATION...12Z KGRI TAF. A STRONG SOUTH WIND COMPONENT WILL BE
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH ALONG THE AXIS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY THURSDAY EVENING WITH MUCH BETTER CHANCES JUST EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINAL THURSDAY EVENING. CHANCES ARE JUST LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
435 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
181200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
435 PM CDT THU JUN 17 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GENOA
NEBRASKA...TO GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA...TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ALL BEING POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO PRESENT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR KEARNEY
NEBRASKA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER NEAR KEARNEY
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM YORK
NEBRASKA TO SMITH CENTER KANSAS. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.

INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THIS WEEKEND...WHICH COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF OVER 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM GENOA
NEBRASKA...TO GRAND ISLAND NEBRASKA...TO PHILLIPSBURG KANSAS.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)