Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 14, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 PM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

VERY HOT, HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF MY FA THIS
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES HAVE ALREADY ECLIPSED 110F NEAR HAYS AND ARE
VERY CLOSE OVER ALL OF CNTRL KS DOWN TO THE OK BORDER. 12Z DDC/AMA
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MOISTURE TO BE DEEPER THAN YESTERDAY AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW US MIXING OUT WITH SIMILAR HIGHS AND
DEWPTS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY'S READINGS. THIS KEEPS US
IN HEAT ADV CRITERIA AS FAR WEST AS A SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL LINE
AND INTO WARNING CRITERIA IN CNTRL KS AND APPROPRIATE HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED. OF COURSE THERE WILL BE SOME PLACES THAT DON'T
HIT THESE CRITERIA EXACTLY, BUT NO MATTER HOW YOU SLICE IT THESE
ARE UNUSUALLY HOT CONDITIONS FOR SW KS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT STRETCHING FROM
SE NEBRASKA THROUGH NW KS INTO SE COLORADO. THE REAL COLD FRONT IS A
BIT FURTHER BACK OVER WEST NEB/NE COL AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTH. THE H5 RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST PUTTING US IN SW FLOW ALOFT AND
A WEAK SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE IS ROUNDING THE FLAT RIDGE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND IS LIKELY TO BE THE CATALYST TO REALLY GET THE
FRONT ENERGIZED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AND A LITTLE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE RATON MESA AND ADJACENT
CO/NM MTNS. WE ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE A ~60KT H3 JET NOSE IN
OVER US AND AS THE AIRMASS DESTABILIZES THIS AFTERNOON ALL OF THIS
CONVECTION OUGHT ONLY TO INCREASE. MODELS VARY IN HOW THEY DEAL
WITH THE CONVECTION BUT ALL UNZIP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT FROM
S/C NEBRASKA INTO SE COLORADO AFTER 21Z AND THEN MOVE IT INTO SW
KS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE HIGH
(+16 TO +18C AT H7) IT LOOKS AS IF FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUNCH
THROUGH THE EML. WITH FZ LEVELS ~18KFT AND WB0 HEIGHTS ~14KFT WE
WILL NEED SOME BIG STORMS TO GET SEVERE HAIL. BUT CONSIDERING
THAT WE ALREADY HAVE MUCAPES OF 2-5K J/KG ACROSS SW KS, SUCH
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR IS NOT GREAT, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO HELP ORGANIZE STORMS AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS POTENTIAL IS AT QUESTION.
CURRENTLY HAVE CONFINED THE HIGHEST POPS TO OUR NORTH BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT AND PROCEED
SOUTH, PERHAPS ALL THE WAY THROUGH MY FA. I HAVE INCREASED THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS AND WE CAN ADJUST THEM AS
THE STORM EVOLUTION REVEALS ITSELF.

CAN'T RULE OUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT, ESP GIVEN THAT THE UPPER WAVE WILL STILL
BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THAT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES INTO
TOMORROW AND ADDITIONAL DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY (ALONG
WITH THE POTENTIAL FORCING ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES),
HAVE MAINTAINED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL DRY OUT THU NIGHT THROUGH
FRI AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND PLAINS.
IN A NW FLOW PATTERN WE'VE GOT TO WATCH FOR AFTERNOON STORMS
COMING OUT OF COLORADO AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL MCSS, BUT NEITHER IS
STRONGLY SUGGESTED IN THE MODELS AT THIS POINT, THUS WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. -WRIGHT

DAYS 3-7...

OVERALL, THE GOING EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKED GOOD AND ON TRACK.  THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE UPPER HIGH
CENTERED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF US DURING THE SATURDAY TO TUESDAY
TIME FRAME, LEAVING SOUTHWEST KANSAS MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
ALOFT.  WE WILL BE AT LEAST SUSCEPTIBLE TO PERIODIC SHORT WAVES TO
ROUND THE NORTHERN TOP OF THE RIDGE AND COME THROUGH, OR AT LEAST
NEAR, OUR CWA ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.  THEREFORE, ONE SUCH
WAVE IS DETECTABLE IN BOTH EC AND GFS MODELS SUNDAY NIGHT AND THUS
HAVE ADDED LOW POPS THEN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER 20 POPS IN OUR EASTERN
CWA SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT WAVE WHICH APPEARS ON BOTH MODELS IS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, PERIODS 6.5 TO 7.  HAVE BLANKETED ALL
OF THE CWA WITH 18 POPS, THINKING THE CONVECTION COULD BE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN OUR CWA.  IT APPEARS TO BE WARM TO HOT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  SATURDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 100S MOST LOCATIONS, BUT ANY OF THE REST WILL BE NEAR
THOSE VALUES AND IT MAY NOT MAKE MUCH DIFFERENCE TO ANYONE WORKING
OUTSIDE.  850MB TEMP PROGS ARE SHOWING A MINIMAL RANGE FROM 25C (E)
TO 30+C (W) EACH DAY, FROM SAT THROUGH WED, WITH PERHAPS A MAX IN
THE WED DAY 7 TIME FRAME.  HARD TO SEE WHY DAY 7 WOULD BE WARMER
THAN ANY PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WILL BUMP HIGHS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MID LEVEL CIGS
IN THE 070-090 RANGE MOVING IN AFTER 00Z FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THESE
CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG A FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST THROUGH AREA, THROUGH HYS FIRST, THEN GCK AND THEN DDC BY
03Z.  SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALONG AND JUST
BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND COULD IMPACT ANY TAF SITE, BUT MOST LIKELY
HYS.  THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH HYS BY 04Z, GCK BY 08Z AND
DDC BY 11Z. MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  72  91  71  97 /  50  30  20  10
GCK  70  91  69  98 /  40  30  20  10
EHA  70  91  69  98 /  30  20  20  10
LBL  71  91  70  98 /  30  30  20  10
HYS  71  90  71  97 /  60  30  20  10
P28  76  94  73  98 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ030-043>045-063-
064-076>078-086>088.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ031-
046-065-066-079>081-089-090.

&&

FN34/12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
502 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088-151015-
TREGO-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-STANTON-
GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-
502 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010 /402 AM MDT WED JUL 14 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR SYRACUSE TO SCOTT CITY
TO NEAR DIGHTON AND WAKEENEY AT 3 PM. ANOTHER LINE OF MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM SOUTH OF
THIS FRONT NEAR THE COLORADO AND KANSAS BORDER. AS THESE STORMS
DEVELOP LATE TODAY THEY WILL SPREAD EAST SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ON THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE BUT A FEW MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 4 PM NORTHWEST OF A
HUGOTON TO JETMORE LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090-151015-
ELLIS-RUSH-PAWNEE-STAFFORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-COMANCHE-BARBER-
502 AM CDT WED JUL 14 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 DEGREES COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES OF
AROUND 105 DEGREES DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

BY THE EARLY EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. SOME
OF THESE STORMS EARLY TONIGHT WILL BE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS OF 60
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ON THURSDAY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE BUT A FEW MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT NORTH OF A JETMORE TO LARNED LINE.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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