Winter Weather in Kansas, February 7 to 8, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.

THE RECENT MODEL RUNS  HAVE REMAINED IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TIME AND SPACE FOR THE EVOLVING PRECIPITATION EVENT. THIS MORNINGS
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED FAIRLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE CONUS ALTHOUGH  A MODERATE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL JET WAS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES WITH A BROAD JET MAX THROUGH THE
GULF. SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE
500-300 MB LOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION,
WHICH THE FORECAST MODELS ADVECT EASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLIGHTING THE BROAD WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE ENHANCED COLD CLOUD TOPS ACROSS CENTRAL KS,
AS WELL AS THE VORT MAX OVER NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH REPRESENTS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS COME TOGETHER TONIGHT, A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS
KANSAS, AND BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL
SIDE, ESPECIALLY AS DEEPER COLDER AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD AFTER SUNSET.
THE BEST SCENARIO SUPPORTS ACCUMULATING SNOW DEVELOPING BY 7-9 PM
THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR, WITH PERHAPS 1-3 INCHES BY THE LATE
EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE OF SUBSEQUENT BANDS OF SNOW
DEVELOPING FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
MATURES. THE PANHANDLE REGIONS REPRESENT THE WARM SECTOR AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THETA-E AIR RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SOME
MODELS INDICATE LESS STABILITY ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND SOME
LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOWS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE OKLAHOMA
BORDER OVER NIGHT IN THE LESS STABLE ENVIRONMENT. BY EARLY MONDAY,
THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS SHOULD BEGIN TO
ENTER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WINDS SHOULD BECOME SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING MONDAY, AND CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING WILL
OCCURS WHERE SNOW AMOUNTS WERE GREATER THAN ABOUT 4 INCHES. SINCE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING IS LIKELY, THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE  THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE EXPECTED SKY CLEARING MONDAY NIGHT, AND LOWS
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS OR LOW 20S. VERY LITTLE
RECOVER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS COLD ADVECTION DOMINATES THE EARLY
MORNING, AND DIURNAL RISES MIGHT BE FROM 0 DEGREES NORTHEAST TO
PERHAPS 5-10 DEGREES IN FAR WESTERN SECTIONS. CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT
OVER FRESH SNOW SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

DAYS 3-7...

THE 12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CANADIAN...ARE TRENDING TOWARD A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE WELL TO THE SOUTH
OF WESTERN KANSAS. THE GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...SHOW
SOME PHASING OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WHICH CROSSES WESTERN
KANSAS ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FORECAST HAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND EVEN THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO
HIGH.  HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA ON THURSDAY.

LATER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND INTO WEEK TWO THE MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A TREND TOWARD MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS ALSO FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF AND DIG TOWARD THE
US/MEXICAN BORDER NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO TRACKING PRETTY FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...

CIGS WILL STAY IN OR FALL INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY AT HAYS...GARDEN
CITY AND DODGE CITY BY 00Z.  AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE
REPLACED BY AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. LOOK FOR SNOW TO INCREASE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT
GARDEN CITY AND DODGE CITY. VSBYS SHOULD DROP TO A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS MONDAY
MORNING WITH CIGS AND VSBYS INCREASING TO MVFR/VFR BY 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  23  25   8  26 / 100  90  10   0
GCK  22  24   6  28 / 100  80   0   0
EHA  22  27   8  28 / 100  90   0   0
LBL  23  28   8  28 / 100  90   0   0
HYS  22  22   7  24 / 100  80  10   0
P28  29  30   9  25 / 100 100  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ MONDAY FOR
KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>086.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ066-080-081-
087>090.

&&

FN33/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-081100-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
457 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2010 /357 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH LIGHT SNOW
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES FROM WEST
TO EAST TONIGHT, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHEAST OF A SAINT JOHN TO MEADE LINE. SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE,
3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY EVENING, WITH 1 TO 4
INCHES EXPECTED NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE. SOME DRIFTING OF SNOW
MONDAY MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME TRAVEL PROBLEMS, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MEADE, GREENSBURG, PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.

.DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY, TO CALL IN
SNOWFALL REPORTS.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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