Kansas, 2010

Winter Weather in Kansas, February 25, 2010

February 25, 2010 · NWS DDC · 4 events in 3 counties and zones

On Thursday, February 25th, 2010, a cold front marched southeast through western Kansas, and produced a little snow over a small section of southwestern Kansas. A narrow band of snow 3 to 5 inches in depth and from 5 to 15 miles wide, fell from near Liberal in Seward County northeastward to near Dodge City in Ford County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.

On Thursday, February 25th, 2010, a cold front marched southeast through western Kansas, and produced a little snow over a small section of southwestern Kansas. A narrow band of snow 3 to 5 inches in depth and from 5 to 15 miles wide, fell from near Liberal in Seward County northeastward to near Dodge City in Ford County. A band of snow around 3 inches in depth and only 5 to 10 miles wide surrounded the 3 to 5 inch band. Two inches or less fell south a line from Elkhart to Jetmore, and west of a line from Kinsley to Coldwater.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 25, 2:45 AM CST, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 25, 2:45 AM CST, 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
245 AM CST THU FEB 25 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON POTENTIAL FOR WINTER PRECIP EVENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LATEST UA ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONTINUED ACTIVE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET WHICH IS DRAPED, MORE OR LESS ZONALLY, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONUS. A WEAK RIDGE IS EVIDENT FROM H3 TO H5 OVER THE
CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES AND BEGINNING TO EMERGE INTO THE PLAINS ATM WHILE
A HUGE UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE ERN 1/3
OF THE CONUS. A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH BROAD 50DM HEIGHT FALLS HAS JUST
PASSED THE 4-CORNERS AREA AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO
EVIDENT AT H7. REASONABLY STRONG UPPER TO MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
ROCKIES HAS INDUCED A LEE SFC TROF OVER ERN CO. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM CNTRL OK ACROSS FAR SW
KANSAS INTO THE LEE CYCLONE OVER ERN CO WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH
POSITIONED OVER THE UPPER PLAINS AND MIDWEST.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A SMALL SCALE
BUT POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WAVE ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING AND CUTOFF OVER THE
OK/FAR N TX PANHANDLES BY THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY EDGE EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LEE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SFC CYCLONE OVER N TX/W OK, WHICH TRACKS
INTO W-CNTRL OK BY THIS EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE MID
LEVELS START OUT FAIRLY WARM (+3 TO +5C) AND DRY IN THE MORNING BUT
DYNAMIC PROCESSES HAVE THE COLUMN SUFFICIENTLY COOLED AND
MOISTENED BY 21Z FOR SNOW TO BEGIN REACHING THE GROUND. MODEL
CROSS SECTIONS SHOW IMPRESSIVE UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
DENDTRITIC LAYER FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING FROM
ROUGHLY DODGE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO REASONABLE DEFORMATION
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK ACROSS SW KS. THE KICKER IS REALLY A LACK
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPTS NO HIGHER THAN THE U20S AS FAR
AS THE EYE CAN SEE.

REGARDING QPF, THE NAM WOULD HAVE A SWATH OF NEARLY 8 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE FROM ROUGHLY HUGOTON TO JUST NORTH OF
DODGE CITY. I CAN'T SEE WHERE IT GETS THE MOISTURE FOR THAT AND THE
NAM HAS SHOWN A PROPENSITY FOR OVERESTIMATING SNOW THIS SEASON,
ESPECIALLY WRT TO MESOSCALE BANDING. THE GFS HAS A MORE REASONABLE
LOOKING 2-4 INCH SWATH ACROSS OUR SRN HALF BUT THE EC/UKMET/GEM
ARE MUCH DRIER. AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE WITH 1-3 INCHES
FROM ROUGHLY DODGE CITY SOUTH AND LITTLE TO NOTHING NORTH OF DODGE
CITY.

WITH THIS IN MIND AM PLANNING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
(WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A PROBLEM) FOR MUCH OF MY FA SOUTH OF
HWY 50 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE EXCLUDED MY FAR WEST
COUNTIES SINCE THE STORM DOESN'T REALLY GET IT'S ACT TOGETHER
UNTIL ITS FURTHER EAST. GIVEN THE NATURE AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS
STORM WARNING TYPE SNOWFALLS ARE NOT INCONCEIVABLE BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON IF/WHERE THE DEFORMATION SETS UP AND HOW LONG IT
RESIDES. I DONT THINK ITS REASONABLE TO TRY TO GUESS AT THAT RIGHT
NOW AND WHILE IT WONT PROVIDE MUCH LEAD TIME, THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
A DECISION MADE WHEN WE SEE THE WHITES OF ITS EYES.

THE SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY AWAY TONIGHT AND THEN THE DRY WEATHER
RESUMES AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND DRY NW
FLOW PREDOMINATES OVER THE PLAINS. TEMPS FOR FRI WILL BE DIFFICULT
AND DEPENDANT ON SNOW COVER FROM OUR QUICK HITTING STORM EARLY IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE OPTED NOT TO CHANGE THE GOING TEMP
FORECAST. -WRIGHT

DAYS 3-7...

THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WAS ASSESSED THIS SHIFT...AND BY
AND LARGE THE INHERITED FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD
SHAPE.  SATURDAY...A SHARP RIDGE AXIS WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THROUGH WEST TEXAS IN BETWEEN
TWO FORMIDABLE LONGWAVE TROUGHS.  THE NEXT BIG PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST REGION LATE IN THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WHICH WILL HAVE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE DDC FA
BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  SINCE THE WEEKEND DESERT SOUTHWEST
STORM WILL BE ENTERING IN A MEAGER LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT
(NOT TO MENTION FAIRLY PALTRY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE UNTIL ITS ALMOST
TOO LATE)...THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL MOST
LIKELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME.  WILL
MAINTAIN THE ~ 40 POP FORECAST SINCE IT STILL APPEARS THERE IS A
REASONABLE CHANCE AT AT LEAST SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT.
THE OTHER QUESTION WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE.  NOW THAT WE
TRANSITIONING CLOSER TO SPRING...ANY SYSTEM THAT COMES ACROSS
WITHOUT ANY PRE-EXISTING ARCTIC AIRMASS NEARBY OR IMMEDIATELY
UPSTREAM...THEN PRECIP TYPE WILL PROBABLY BE OF THE NON-WINTRY
VARIETY.  GFS AND ECMWF MODEL H85 TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY IN THE 0C TO -2C WOULD SUGGEST EITHER A VERY CHILLY RAIN OR A
VERY WET SNOW...BUT AT THIS POINT NOTHING THAT WOULD LIKELY CAUSE
ANY SIGNIFICANT HAZARD.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AS WELL...SATURDAY HIGHS SHOULD REACH LOWER
TO MID 50S IN THE RIDGE AXIS WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE +4 TO +7C RANGE.
INCREASING CLOUDS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN...HOWEVER THINK THAT GOING FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE BIT
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SUNDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION
PANS OUT.  THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE WAVE AND BEGINS LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY...AND
THINK THIS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST.  THE CANADIAN GEM SOLUTION IS
MORE OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WHICH IS PROBABLY THE BEST
FORECAST AT THIS POINT (H5 LOW CENTER ALONG NM-TX PANHANDLE BORDER
VALID MAR01/00Z MONDAY).

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TOWARD 12Z WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY KGCK.  SUN WILL HELP
SCATTER OUT A THIN LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK OUT WEST...HOWEVER 2000 TO
4000 FOOT CEILING WILL BEGIN TO FILL IN BY MIDDAY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AS A CYCLONE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE EASTERN TX/OK
PANHANDLES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY...PERHAPS
AS FAR NORTH AT KGCK AND KDDC TERMINALS AROUND 21Z OR MORE LIKELY
AROUND 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  32  24  42  24 /  70  80  10   0
GCK  32  24  45  23 /  60  60   0   0
EHA  37  26  47  23 /  50  60   0   0
LBL  36  25  46  24 /  70  80   0   0
HYS  32  21  43  23 /  30  30  10   0
P28  37  28  40  26 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR KSZ076>078-080-081-085>090.

&&

FN34/25/25
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 24, 4:30 AM CST, 22 hours 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
430 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251100-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
430 AM CST WED FEB 24 2010 /330 AM MST WED FEB 24 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS PRIMARILY SNOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR LARNED TO DODGE CITY TO
LIBERAL. SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW LIKELY BY EARLY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE INCH. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HAYS TO GREENSBURG TO NEAR ASHLAND WHERE
AROUND ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS.

ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN OR SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY HOW MUCH RAIN OR
SNOW WILL FALL FROM THIS NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Weather, Meade

When
February 25, 3:00 AM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where
Meade forecast zone
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
37.238, -100.366 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snowfall of 4 inches was reported 17 miles southwest of Meade.

Winter Weather, Seward

When
February 25, 3:00 AM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where
Seward forecast zone
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
37.193, -100.851 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snowfall of 4.5 inches was reported 10 miles southeast of Hayne.

Winter Weather, Meade

When
February 25, 3:00 AM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where
Meade forecast zone
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
37.238, -100.366 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snowfall of 4.4 inches was reported 4 miles southwest of Meade State Park.

Winter Weather, Ford

When
February 25, 3:00 AM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where
Ford forecast zone
Reported by
NWS Employee
Coordinates
37.692, -99.888 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Snowfall of 4 inches was reported in Bucklin.

What these are

Winter Weather
Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Kansas in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, February 2010

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 218148, 218149, 218150, 218151.