Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, August 23 to 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
329 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE PRE-AUTUMN FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO
WESTERN KANSAS TODAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE A NICE RELIEF FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE SEEN...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ONE MORE HOT
DAY TODAY...PROBABLY THE HOTTEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AND
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR SOME.

YOU CAN USUALLY GET A GOOD SENSE OF HOW STRONG THE SURFACE FROPA
WILL BE BY THE DEGREE OF BAROCLINICITY AT H7 THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND THE 23/00Z RAOB+RUC ANALYSIS CERTAINLY SHOWED QUITE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH +16C AT RIVERTON, WY AND +1C TO THE WEST OF
THERE AT BOISE, ID. THE H5 TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE ALBERTA
ROCKIES SOUTH INTO NEVADA WHICH WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION DURING THE DAY TODAY. SURFACE FRONTOGENESIS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO WITH +30C H85 ISOTHERM SPREADING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE DDC FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 99 TO 102F RANGE WITH THE HOTTEST SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONFINED TO SOUTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GCK-DDC SOUTH TO LIBERAL-MEADE. A CORRIDOR OF RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME APPARENT JUST NORTH OF THE OLD WASHED-
OUT FRONT FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS FEEDING NORTHWEST
INTO ZONE OF INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z. ONE OR
TWO SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 00Z AND
MOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT PRODUCING VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS.
THINK THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN HALF TO ONE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE WILL HAVE 80 TO 90
POPS. AREAS OF CATEGORICAL POPS (GREATER THAN 75 PERCENT) WILL
ALSO HAVE HEAVY RAIN IN THE GRIDS AND WORDS. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF FRONTOGENESIS FORCING AND COULD SEE A
COUPLE DECENT BOW SEGMENTS ALONG THE FRONT INITIALLY BEFORE
CONVECTION GROWS UPSCALE INTO A BIG RAIN MACHINE OVERNIGHT. QPF
GRIDS WILL REFLECT A TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT I BELIEVE SOME
LOCATIONS... ESPECIALLY FROM HAYS TO STAFFORD TO MEDICINE LODGE
CORRIDOR...WILL SEE SOME AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BEFORE THE
WHOLE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA.

SINCE THE FRONT APPEARS STRONGER THAN THOUGHT IN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS...IT WILL PUSH THROUGH QUICKER AND THUS NOW THINK WILL
SEE THE ATMOSPHERE CLEARING OUT SOONER ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS BY MIDDAY
TUESDAY AND GIVEN MORE INSOLATION THAN THOUGHT WILL HAVE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY A LITTLE WARMER INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LOWER 70S IN THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A GREATER PROBABILITY OF
LINGERING CLOUDS/SHOWERS FOR MORE OF THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN NICELY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SETTING UP FOR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DAYBREAK. SHOULD SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE MID 50S
AND PERHAPS LOWER 50S...WHICH WOULD BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
SINCE THE END OF MAY OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF DDC FA. -UMSCHEID

DAYS 3-7...

THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND DRY FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS EVOLVE THE UPPER PATTERN VERY
SIMILARLY. THE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON
WEDNESDAY IS SHOWN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY BEFORE FINALLY BEING KICKED TO ALONG THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG WAVE DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
WITH ONLY WEAK MID TO UPPER FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, THE LEE TROUGH WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE ADJACENT FRONT RANGE REGION OF COLORADO WITH
WARM SOUTH WINDS PREVAILING BY THURSDAY AND PERSISTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.  A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS ANY MONSOONAL WAVES WILL BE PULLED
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, GETTING THE CORRECT
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE
AND WILL OPT TO KEEP MOST OF THE WEEKEND DRY. WILL AIM FOR HIGHS
GRADUALLY WARMING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY, TO THE 90S
NEXT WEEKEND AS MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EACH DAY WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
INSOLATION AND RESULTANT MIXING.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR DDC, GCK
AND HYS TERMINALS AS VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, THIS CHANGES QUICKLY AS
AN UPPER WAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL AID IN PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING FROM THE HYS TERMINAL SOUTHWEST TO NEAR THE GCK
TERMINAL AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE DDC TERMINAL BY
MIDNIGHT.  ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO VARY CONSIDERABLE WITHIN ANY
STORMS BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE OR HIGHER.  WINDS
WILL TURN QUICKLY TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 100  64  75  54 /  10  90  60   0
GCK 100  61  75  53 /  30  80  50   0
EHA  99  65  72  55 /  30  70  50  10
LBL 101  66  72  56 /  20  70  60   0
HYS  98  63  77  53 /  30  90  50   0
P28  99  73  73  58 /  10  90  80  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN25/35/35

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
532 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241045-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
532 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2010 /432 AM MDT MON AUG 23 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. THE INITIAL LATE AFTERNOON THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO
AREAS GENERALLY WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HUGOTON TO GARDEN
CITY TO WAKEENEY. AS THE EVENING PROCEEDS...THE THREAT FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT EAST TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES QUITE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME AREAL FLOODING IN SOME
ISOLATED LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EVENING HOURS WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY WITH SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED IN THE MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT SHOULD BE ALERT TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY AFTER 5 PM CDT.
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...REPORTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCAL FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

UMSCHEID