Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, April 29 to 30, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
339 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TONIGHT-SATURDAY:
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE PLAINS...AND
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A LINE OF CUMULUS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MID-LEVEL FORCING AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THE
SURFACE FRONT IS STILL BACK ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...WEST OF HILL
CITY AND DODGE CITY. SURFACE WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. NOT VERY
CERTAIN AT THIS TIME WHETHER OR NOT THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY ENOUGH TO
KEEP A WIND ADVISORY OUT...SO WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK.

SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS STILL LOOK LIKE A GOOD
BET WITH SUPERCELLS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...AFFECTING MORE OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. GOING
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE FOR THIS PERIOD.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION
INTO MONDAY...KEEPING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THIS TIME. THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COMES THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD DRY...BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD VERY
WELL BE NEEDED AS TIME GETS CLOSER.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GO FROM THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ANY PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE ON TAP AT
THIS POINT.

SCHRECK

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY...AND T-STORM CHANCES
MAINLY IN CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CNU/HUT/ICT WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS PM/EVE FROM
STRONG 850 WINDS AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT. GUSTS OF 35-40 KT
POSSIBLE AT THOSE SITES. SCT STRONG T-STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS EVE IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
BACK NWWRD. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO TS AT RSL AND SLN FOR MID-LATE
EVENING AS A RESULT. CONVECTION CHANCES MUCH LESSER FURTHER SOUTH.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  75  50  64 /  30  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      59  72  46  66 /  30  20  10  10
NEWTON          68  72  48  62 /  30  20  10  10
ELDORADO        68  75  49  63 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   69  77  50  65 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         49  65  38  67 /  30  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      51  67  39  65 /  30  20  10  10
SALINA          53  66  41  68 /  40  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       54  69  45  66 /  30  20  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     67  80  50  73 /  20  50  20  20
CHANUTE         68  79  48  71 /  20  50  20  20
IOLA            70  78  49  70 /  20  50  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  80  50  72 /  20  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
415 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER MOST OF THE
AREA. SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY FOR DETAILS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL
TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT AREA
IS ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MARION. STORMS
WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT
OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.

SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAINLY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. STORMS ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER
SATURDAY EVENING COULD BE STRONG...WITH HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE MONITOR LATER OUTLOOKS FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING NORTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON TO MARION.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/JMC/HOWERTON