Heavy thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to southern Iowa on the 13th into the 14th. This caused the south fork of the Chariton River at Promise City to rise over flood stage for about 16 hours.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Heavy thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to southern Iowa on the 13th into the 14th. This caused the south fork of the Chariton River at Promise City to rise over flood stage for about 16 hours. The flooding was minor with little to no damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 13, 5:28 PM CST, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 628 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... PRIMARY CONCERN TONIGHT IS OBVIOUSLY CONVECTIVE TRENDS. MCS HAS GRADUALLY GROWN IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF SRN GREAT LAKES JET SEGMENT ABOVE ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION TONIGHT NOT THE GREATEST WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM NAM/GFS VERSUS HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF RUNS. 12Z SPC NMM WRF RUN PLACES MORE EMPHASIS ON GREATER SFC BASED POTENTIAL TO OUR SOUTH ALONG SRN NE AND IA/MO WRM FRONT DEPICTED ON 20Z SFC ANLYS. 00Z NSSL ARW WRF IS SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH IT DOES DROP MCS INTO NRN IA OVERNIGHT. AT THE MOMENT...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH A NAM/GFS/SREF COMPROMISE IS THE BEST BET WITH A BLEND PRODUCING BOTH SFC BASED AND ELEVATED CONVECTION SIMULTANEOUSLY. WHILE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS BRING ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO IA THROUGH THE NIGHT...NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. 12Z NAM HAD ELEVATED INSTABILITY UP TO 2500 J/KG WITH NIL CINH AND STRONGER ISENT LIFT ALONG 305/310K SFCS AND THIS STRONGER SOLUTION VS GFS MAY BE MORE REALISTIC. COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE STRONGEST SYSTEM THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORTWAVE EXITING THE STATE ON TUESDAY...WITH THE NAM A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE TOMORROW MORNING. MODELS SEEM TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BIGGER SYSTEM BY MID WEEK...WITH A QUICK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN THE MAIN TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH QPF BULLSEYE BY THURSDAY MORNING...WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF PEG CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA FROM 00Z TO 12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...VERY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES FROM PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND SO WITH THE CONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS...INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND POP AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY...INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS QUICKLY DRY OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND LIFT CONFINES TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT WITH TREND OF CONDITIONS DRYING OUT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VERY SUBTLE AND WEAK SHORTWAVE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. MAIN CONCERN WAS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGHEST QPF BULLEYE ACROSS EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VERY GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG WITH BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOMING DEEPLY SATURATED BY 00Z THURSDAY. WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS RANGE AROUND 12KFT WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE WEDNESDAY EVENING. PW VALUES RANGE IN THE 1.50 TO NEAR 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. SHEAR IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE WRT SEVERE POTENTIAL AS 0-1KM VALUES RANGE UNDER 20KTS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UNDER 50KTS. SO BEST SEVERE POTENTIALLY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND THEN LOOKS QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND KEPT WITH ONGOING POPS. NO MAJOR CHANGES PAST FRIDAY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .AVIATION... 14/00Z...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH SRN IA THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING. UPR LVL SYS WILL PRODUCE SCT TSRA LATE TNGT INTO TUE MRNG. ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE AREA BFR 18Z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...SMALL LONG TERM...PODRAZIK AVIATION...MS SEP 10
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1032 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>097-141100- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN- WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER- POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION- CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE- DAVIS- 1032 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NON SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEFORE THEY END BY MIDDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AND AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIMITED...HOWEVER THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING AROUND MIDWEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 554 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 IAZ070-071-081>084-093>095-132345- ADAIR-ADAMS-CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-LUCAS-RINGGOLD-UNION-WAYNE- 554 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010 ...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL LIKELY... AT 548 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY. THEY WERE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAIL OF UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF UP TO 30 MPH. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN LESS THAN AN HOUR WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHANNON CITY... ARISPE... AFTON... ARISPE... TINGLEY... LORIMOR... THAYER... ELLSTON... MURRAY... GRAND RIVER... WELDON... VAN WERT... OSCEOLA... GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
556 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0549 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NW GRISWOLD 41.25N 95.16W
09/13/2010 M2.64 INCH CASS IA TRAINED SPOTTER
SPOTTER REPORTED 2.64 INCHES PRECIPITATION FELL IN LAST
TWO HOURS. PEA SIZE HAIL
&&
RHATTEBEPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
812 PM CDT MON SEP 13 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0620 PM HAIL 2 S HUMESTON 40.83N 93.50W
09/13/2010 E0.88 INCH WAYNE IA PUBLIC
TIME ESTIMATED
&&
AWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, September 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 254790.