Damaging Wind in Indiana, June 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
630 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.  DISCUSSION PORTION
UNCHANGED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE PRECIP CHANCES TODAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SREF AND NAM SEEM TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHILE THE LATEST
ECMWF NOW TAKES THE UPPER LOW FARTHER EAST UP THE OHIO RIVER.  WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/NAM/SREF SOLUTION...KEEPING HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FA TODAY AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS TONIGHT.  KEPT POPS AS HIGH AS CATEGORICAL FOR OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES TODAY...AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
NORTH...TAPERING OFF TO LOW CHANCE SOUTH.

ON SATURDAY...KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FA AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO OUR
EAST...AND REMOVED POPS FOR OUR FAR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.  BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES BACK
INTO THE AREA.  GFS...NAM AND SREF CONTINUE TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT...THOUGH NAM AND SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE SPREADING QPF
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA BY 12Z SUNDAY.  ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST.  MODELS
HAD BEEN TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM THE PAST FEW RUNS...AND
FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MIDDLE GROUND GFS...AND INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  KEPT
CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR SUNDAY ...THEN INCREASED
TO LOW CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK...GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE ECMWF WITH THE COLD FRONT...THOUGH GFS STILL HANGS IT UP OVER
THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST.  ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA WET THROUGH MIDWEEK.  JUST KEPT TO
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MADE
NO CHANGES BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD.  HOPEFULLY MORE MODEL AGREEMENT
WILL EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE.

USED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH KEEPS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS OUR WEST WITH THE EXPECTED
PRECIP/ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.  FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV VALUES WITH PRECIP LIKELY BEING MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE AND DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  IN THE
EXTENDED...PREFERRED TO STAY A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST MEX
GUIDANCE...SO ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO MID MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. BULK OF SHRA/TSTM
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEST AND NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES. LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT TEMPO GROUPS FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS NEAR STORMS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND
INCLUDED ONE FOR KCGI THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
AHEAD OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY...SO INCLUDED VCSH/VCTS. WINDS WILL
GUST OVER 20KTS AT TIMES DURING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

RST/AD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1013 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-121515-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
1013 AM CDT FRI JUN 11 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME STORMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE SUNSHINE
WARMS AND DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON AND OFF CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS
ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OR FLOODING.

MY