Flood in Illinois, July 24 to 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT JUST GETTING INTO EASTERN IA WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND JUICY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT. HAVE HAD WIND DAMAGE WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER CURRENTLY IN WESTERN IL. OTHER STORMS ARE NOW FIRING IN
SOUTHEAST IA AND INTO NW MO. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT JUST GETTING INTO EASTERN IA WITH VERY UNSTABLE AND JUICY
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT
FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO NW MO AT THIS TIME. THE ECM FIRES STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND WILL CARRY MODERATE TO LIKELY POPS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF OUR IL COUNTIES
UNTIL 9 PM. WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE STORMS MOVING AT 30-40 MPH NOT
EXPECTING FLASH FLOODING.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY MORNING AND
THROUGH SUNDAY. LESS HUMID AIR AND MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY.

..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
FORECAST FOCUS ON DRY WEATHER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THEN ANOTHER
STALLING BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS MID TO LATE WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TOLERABLE HUMIDITIES. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE WITH MINS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S. UNFORTUNATELY THIS DRY WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF.

ON TUESDAY THE HIGH BEGINS TO RETREAT OFF TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY BY MID WEEK.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE RISING WELL INTO THE 70S WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE CLIMBING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.

A SIMILAR PATTERN THAT WE HAVE SEEN ALL TOO OFTEN THIS SUMMER SETS
UP AGAIN MID TO LATE WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY OR AT LEAST MEANDER BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL BE DUE TO THE FRONT ENCOUNTERING
THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE ECM EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE
FRONT FARTHER TO OUR SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE DIFFICULT PART THIS FAR OUT IS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS EACH IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING BUT EXACT AREAS TO BE IMPACTED
AND HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS
SUGGEST MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWARD AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH INTO THE MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST
MONSOON MOISTURE ALSO GETS TAPPED IN THIS PATTERN WHICH MAY ALSO
ENHANCE THE RAINFALL. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY AS
THE DAYS PROGRESS AS MANY RIVERS WILL STILL BE IN FLOOD NEXT WEEK
FROM THIS MOST RECENT DELUGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN IA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVING INTO IL THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST TO NORTH
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT THEN NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MANY RIVERS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD OR WILL BE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. RIVERS WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR AT LEAST MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THE LAKE DELHI DAM FAILURE IN DELAWARE COUNTY HAS ALSO
TAKEN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHANCE TO DRY OUT NEXT COUPLE
DAYS WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS RETURNING LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

HAASE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-252100-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
358 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA...WESTERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. STORM MOTION WILL BE EAST AT 35 MPH.

AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS SHOULD SET UP SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL AGAIN BE A THREAT WITH ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...WESTERN
ILLINOIS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

HAASE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 ENE MASSBACH          42.27N 90.06W
07/24/2010  M5.00 INCH       JO DAVIESS         IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL...WITH A MEASURED 11.50 INCHES IN THE LAST
            48 HOURS. DELAYED REPORT.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
723 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WAYLAND                 40.40N 91.58W
07/24/2010                   CLARK              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER HIGHWAY 136 AT WAYLAND. WATER ALSO OVER ROUTE
            H BETWEEN KAHOKA AND WINCHESTER.

&&

LEGRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
808 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      VICENNES                40.50N 91.57W
07/24/2010                   LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TORRENTIAL RAIN IN TOWN...WITH AT LEAST A FOOT OF WATER
            AT THREE INTERSECTIONS.

&&

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1046 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     HEAVY RAIN       KEOKUK                  40.41N 91.40W
07/24/2010  E4.00 INCH       LEE                IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            RAIN THAT FELL TODAY AND THIS EVENING. RELAYED BY WGEM.

&&

ERVIN