Dust Devil in Hawaii, November 9, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1025 AM HST TUE NOV 9 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WILL BE RETURNING TO ALL AREAS OF THE 50TH STATE THIS
EVENING...AND REMAIN WITH US INTO THE WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER FOR THE REMOVAL OF HAZE FOR OAHU
FOR THERE IS TOO MUCH OF AN EAST WIND COMPONENT THERE. KAUAI IS
STILL ON A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR HAZE. BUT
THE CHANCES LESSENS IF THE EAST WIND RETURN SOONER THAN EXPECTED.
IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WHERE THE HAZE IS ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
SHOT DUE TO THE SUN/S ANGLE AND THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MASKING THE LOWER
ELEMENTS. IF THE HAZE DOES REACH KAUAI...ITS STAY WILL BE BRIEF
SINCE LIGHT EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO EASE IN TONIGHT.

THE FORECAST WAS ALSO UPDATED FOR THE REDUCTION OF POPS FOR OAHU
AND KONA SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST AIRCRAFT
SOUNDINGS FROM VARIOUS AIRPORT STATEWIDE SHOWS A STRONG INVERSION AT
5 TO 6 THOUSAND FEET OVER OAHU AND KONA. THE INVERSION IS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER OVER KAUAI WHICH WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

TRADE WINDS ARE MORE SOLID AND STRONGER NORTH AND EAST OF OAHU. THEY
WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD THIS EVENING BEFORE BUILDING TO MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG SPEEDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. KAUAI COUNTY AND PART OF THE KAUAI
CHANNEL WILL BE FLIRTING WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH WIND COMPONENT SUNDAY.

WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THINNING OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THE COMING WEEKEND AS MODEL ENSEMBLES
SHOWS INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE GFS IS
PERSISTENT ON THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT OR A BATCH OF MOISTURE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SLIGHT
REDUCTION FOLLOWS BEFORE A MODERATE RISE SUNDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE COMPLICATED BY EMERGENCE OF AN MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY. ITS PRESENCE WILL ADD SOME INSTABILITY TO THE
BIG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY.

&&

.MARINE...
ONCE THE TRADE TAKES OVER DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT WILL
STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SC/
IS LIKELY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

THE TRADES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BUMP UP THE SURF FOR THE EAST
FACING SHORES TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORERUNNERS FRO THE NEXT MODERATE TO LARGE WEST NORTHWEST SWELL IS
SLATED TO ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT WAVE WATCH III
HAS THE SWELL BUILDING SUNDAY PEAKING AT 10 FEET 16 SECONDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. HENCE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVEL SURF ON NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES IS PROBABLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

LAU