High Surf in Hawaii, November 14 to 16, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
350 AM HST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS
FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. A FRONT WILL BE NUDGING
CLOSER TO THE KAUAI END OF STATE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
IN WHICH TIME OUR WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING VOG AND HAZE TO ALL PARTS OF THE
STATE. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE STATE. HOWEVER...
WE WILL STAY IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW THURSDAY. A WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SIDE
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY A SIGN FOR SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF HILO SHOWS A RATHER MOIST
AIR MASS WITH MOISTURE TO 16000 FEET. A DRY LAYER FOLLOWS UP BEFORE
ANOTHER SEMI MOIST LAYER BETWEEN 22000 AND 27000 FEET. A CHANCE FOR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...PERHAPS...ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD SECTION BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT ASPECT. WILL GO FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WEATHER FOR THE BIG
ISLAND IS BEING AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THAT
ISLAND. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FILL DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS BELOW 12000 FEET. BELIEVE THE CALL
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW...WHERE THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS DURING THE NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

WE WILL BE PAYING PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO WINDWARD OAHU AND THE
KOOLAU MOUNTAINS UNDER THIS WIND REGIME WHERE THERE IS A SLIGHT
SOUTH COMPONENT. THE SHOWERS TEND TO FLARE UP OVER THIS PART OF OAHU
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALSO UNDER THIS WIND FLOW...PLUMES OF
SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OR VORTICES FROM NEIGHBORING ISLANDS MAY
ARISE. IN SHORT...THE CURRENT FORECAST OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND
REGIME HAS THE POTENTIAL OF BEING ELEVATED.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED THE ISLAND
SKIES. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF ENHANCED SHOWERS NORTHEAST OF MAUI HAS
DISSIPATED...THE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS REMAINS.
SO FAR THE BAND HAS REMAINED STATIONARY. WEATHER RADAR IS PAINTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
WINDWARD WATERS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN BIG ISLAND WATERS HAVE TOPS TO 15000 FEET. THEY ARE SO FAR
STAYING OVER WATERS. ONLY THE SMALLER...LIGHTER SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
MAKING IT ONSHORE. WEATHER RADAR ALSO SHOW THE KOOLAU/S ON OAHU
BEING THE MOST ACTIVE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS INTACT. HAZE AND VOG ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER AFTER TUESDAY WHEN THE FRONT NEARS KAUAI.
MANY...IF NOT ALL THE FORECAST MODELS...HAS THE FRONT PASSING NORTH
OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SECOND GUESSES
THE RETURN OF THE TRADES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ABOUT ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND OR COMBINED WIND AND SEAS THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE TO THE INCREASING NORTHWEST SWELL.
WHERE THE SURF SHOULD BE ON THE RISE TODAY ALONG EITHER NORTH AND
OR WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS.

WE ARE ALSO MONITORING A SHORT PERIOD EAST SWELL. THE KAILUA BAY
BUOY SHOWS A RISE IN THIS SWELL. IT IS CURRENTLY AT 8 AND A HALF
FEET COMBINED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS RIDING IN WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL HAVE BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS AND VIS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS
EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU...NORTH FACING SHORES OF M0LOKAI AND
MAUI...WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

LAU