Drought in Hawaii, January 1 to 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1130 PM HST THU DEC 31 2009

.UPDATE...WINDS ON THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLAND HAVE DECREASED A
BIT THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH WINDS REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL OF
30 MPH. THUS HAVE DOWNGRADED THE HIGH WIND WARNING TO A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SUMMITS OF BIG ISLAND UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY. WINDS
SHOULD FURTHER DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY TO THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BAND OF RAIN CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS IN KAUAI CHANNEL
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 25 MILES PER
HOUR. SHOULD REACH OAHU IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS. THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...AS MUCH STRONGER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE REPORTED AHEAD
AND BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE UPDATE THE FORECAST TO PUT AREAL COVERAGE
INSTEAD OF PROBABILISTIC COVERAGE ON THE PRECIPITATION. STILL DO
NOT EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEM...SINCE THE
RAIN BAND IS MOVING QUITE SWIFTLY. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE
TO MAUI COUNTY LATER THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND WINDS
AS WELL. LATEST FORECAST CHARTS STILL INDICATE THE FRONT WILL REACH
AS FAR SOUTH AS BIG ISLAND...THOUGH IT WILL DISSIPATING BY THEN
WITH REMNANT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL AS
MAUI COUNTY. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF THE BIG ISLANDS ARE ON A
DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET LIFTS FURTHER
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE DOWN THE WIND WARNING
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

STILL EXPECT A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO PASS SWIFTLY NORTH OF THE
ISLAND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR LIGHTER NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS TO RETURN
BRIEFLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. LATEST FORECAST CHARTS NOW HAVE THIS FRONT MOVING
CLOSE TO KAUAI BY MONDAY...WHICH IS AGAIN FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
SOLUTION. THE SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY BELIEVABLE...GIVEN THE QUITE
PROGRESSIVE GENERAL SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH PACIFIC WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES RACING ACROSS THE AREA. SHALL CHECK OUT A
LATER MODEL RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
FORECAST AT TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS STILL INDICATING ELEVATED INCOMING
NW SWELL. THUS HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED
ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS THIS SURF EPISODE WILL LINGER A TAD LONGER AT
THIS POINT. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PROBABLY ARRIVE LATE IN
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING POSSIBLY ADVISORY LEVELS
SURF AGAIN. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS VERY LARGE SURF FOR THE ISLANDS
DURING THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KONA-KOHALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

HUI