Drought in Hawaii, February 1 to 28, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN JAN 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLIES ON MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER...SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY ON TUESDAY. COOL...DRY...AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL TREND TOWARD LIGHTER EAST WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING WINDS AND STABLE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE
TONIGHT. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SLOWLY
SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD
THE ISLANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS STABILIZING AS RIDGING ALOFT
PERSISTS OVER REGION AND MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT DISPERSES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS...
WITH A DECREASE IN RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PROMOTES LAND BREEZES.

WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND VEER SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULT WILL BE A SEA BREEZE PATTERN FEATURING
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR AND
MAUKA AREAS. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY DRAW UP
VOLCANIC EMISSIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL.

ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE AS
EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL TAP THE REMNANT
FRONTAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY POOLED SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI...LEADING TO
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER KAUAI AND OAHU MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH MODEL INDICATIONS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE
PUSHED DOWN THE ENTIRE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY ITSELF
WILL BRING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHERLIES ON WEDNESDAY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. A
TREND TOWARD LIGHTER EASTERLIES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS ON THE DECLINE. THE SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY
51101 LATE IN THE MORNING...WITH THE LATEST READING COMING IN AT 9
FT 13 SECONDS...SLIGHTLY BELOW WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU...KAUAI...OAHU...AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR
NORTH FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

A PAIR OF NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF AGAIN
MIDWEEK THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
HEIGHTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...SURF WELL ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS IS
EXPECTED. SURF MAY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AS THE
NEXT SWELL BUILDS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SELECT MARINE ZONES...WHERE
SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ARE OCCURRING DUE TO THE LARGE NORTHWEST
SWELL. SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 10 FEET FOR MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

WROE