Hail and Damaging Winds in Georgia, April 27, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2010

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE PRETTY MUCH IN
PLACE...WHILE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE/LOW CONTINUES DIVING DOWN THE
PLAINS ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE FORMER SYSTEM. SECONDARY LOW WILL
GET ABSORBED INTO THE PRIMARY LOW'S TROUGHINESS LATE TODAY...
ALLOWING THE CANADA LOW TO CONTINUE TO DIG AND DEEPEN. WHILE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY LOW ISN'T PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT (ESPECIALLY WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE)...ENOUGH PVA PUSHING THROUGH THAT WE SHOULD SEE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS TODAY. COLD UPPER CORE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE LAPSE RATES WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY...MARGINAL THOUGH IT MAY BE WITH CAPES BELOW 500
J/KG)...FOR BRIEF THUNDER. NAM IS BEGINNING TO CATCH UP WITH THE
REST OF THE SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS...AND GFS HAS INCREASED THE
STRENGTH OF ITS SYSTEM MORE LIKE THE NAM HAD...SO HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISE BUT AGAIN LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/MAV BASED ON ITS
SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER COOL DAY IN STORE FOR THE
REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BUILDING IN ALOFT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA. SHOULD BE PRETTY CHILLY AS THE CLOUD COVER EXITS...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER SPOTS. MAY SEE
SOME FROST ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WE MAY BE JUST DRY
ENOUGH WITH JUST ENOUGH LIGHT WIND TO PREVENT IT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE REEVALUATED LATER TODAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM...THOUGH
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY SLIDES EAST
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE TO TEMPS BY THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM AS WARMING TREND TAKES OVER.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

ECMWF AND GFS ARE PLAYING TOGETHER MUCH BETTER THIS MORNING...AS
THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF. CONTINUED WARMING TREND INTO FRIDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. GFS CONTINUES TO
HAVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AND STILL DEEPENS THE SYSTEM TOO MUCH...BUT
IN ANY CASE WE SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING IN LATE
IN THE DAY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY
BEGINNING SATURDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER US THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS GULF RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. NORTHERN SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO BE PROGRESSIVE...
AND WITH WAVE AFTER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVETRAIN
COMBINED WITH THE MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A
RAINY WEEKEND. CURRENT BULLSEYE LOOKS TO BE SETTING UP OVER
TENNESSEE...BUT NORTH GEORGIA WILL CERTAINLY GET ITS SHARE.
CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE FLOODING MAY BE A CONCERN...BUT AGAIN IT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST PARAMETERS LINE UP OVER TENNESSEE...SO WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF THIS HOLDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME SEVERE
THREAT ALSO POSSIBLE...WITH AFTERNOON CAPES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR IS CAUSE FOR SOME CONCERN...
BUT AGAIN BEST ACTIVITY LINES UP OVER TENNESSEE. FOR NOW...HIGH
CHANCE POPS (INCLUDING THUNDER) THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO CLIMB SLOWLY INTO THE 80S AND POSSIBLY
90S. SEE NO REAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH
ECMWF INDICATES A DRYING AND WARMING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.

TDP

&&

.AVIATION...
TRICKY FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH CLOUD LAYERS AT MULTIPLE LEVELS ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HAVE GENERALLY GONE FOR AN MVFR
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE NOW DIVING INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS AFTER SUNRISE AND ISOLATED
THUNDER LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS UPPER COLD CORE LOW PASSES
OVER THE STATE. WINDS WEST TO NORTHWEST TODAY INCREASING TO 10 TO
15KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25KT AFTER 14Z. NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED EXCEPT IN AREAS OF RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  41  72  43  78 /  40  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         64  43  70  50  78 /  40  10   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     59  38  65  40  73 /  60  20   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  39  70  40  78 /  50  10   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        69  44  73  48  80 /  30  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     63  42  69  46  76 /  50  20   0   0   0
MACON           71  43  74  42  81 /  30  10   0   0   0
ROME            64  40  70  42  79 /  60  10   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  66  38  70  39  78 /  40  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         73  48  74  48  81 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TDP
41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
614 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2010

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-281015-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
614 AM EDT TUE APR 27 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO
THE CAROLINAS TODAY.

.PRIMARY HAZARDS...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE LIGHTNING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.

.DISCUSSION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE
INTO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.