Lightning Strike in Florida, August 2, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
INTERIOR S FLA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK AND ANY CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE TO DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE TERMINALS AND THEREFORE HAVE
LEFT VCTS IN ALL TAFS AS TIMING OF ANY SUCH ACTIVITY IMPOSSIBLE TO
DETERMINE AT THIS TIME. LIGHT WIND FLOW ALSO EXPECTED WITH SEA
BREEZES JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS. THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY INLAND ALSO KEEPING THE THREAT
FOR CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010/

UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...
WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.

70/DD

AVIATION DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010/

AVIATION...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS REASONING...WL
INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MVFR CIG AT KAPF THROUGH 13Z FOR LINGERING
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THEIR TERMINAL. INCREASED MOISTURE
AND MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY WILL RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHWRS/TSTMS BUT MOSTLY INTERIOR PORTIONS.
SHWRS/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON OVER
ERN AREAS AND THEN PUSH TOWARD THE WEST COAST UNDER A NORTHEAST
STEERING FLOW. WL INDICATE VCTS OVER ALL TERMINALS STARTING AT
16Z. SFC WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION TODAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED
BY LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH SE FLOW AT 8-10 KNOTS OVER ERN TERMINALS
AND WEST FLOW 10 KTS OR LESS OVER KAPF.

RGH/KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010/

..WET WEATHER TODAY BEFORE GOING DRIER REST OF THIS WEEK...
..NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN INTERIOR AREAS TODAY...

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL THROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE
MORE UNSTABLE OVER THE CWA TODAY COMPARE TO THE LAST SEVERE DAYS.
THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. SO WILL UP THE POPS TODAY TO HIGH IN SCATTERED OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST AREAS.

THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS THIS EVENING...DUE TO THE
LIGHT NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. SO WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AREAS THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ANYTIME POPS
OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS TONIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS ON THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME MORE STABLE AGAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. SO HAVE LOWER
THE POPS A LITTLE BIT TO ISOLATED OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS TO LOW
END SCATTERED OVER REST OF THE CWA FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS
WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN GET TO THE LOWER 90S OVER THE
EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 90S OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN GET CLOSE TO OR BREAK THE
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY. MORE ON THESE
RECORD HIGHS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE MOVING BACK SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS LATE
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND KEEPING THE DRIER ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL KEEP THE POPS IN THE ISOLATED RANGE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS OVER THE REST
OF THE CWA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND.

THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A STRONG TROPICAL
WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST THIS WEEK AND BE EAST OF BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO SEE IF WE SEE ANY
AFFECTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SWINGING FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION THIS MORNING
TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT INTO MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEED AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS BELOW
6 FEET. SO BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD THROUGH MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE. SO NO PROBLEMS WITH
THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND THE RECORD HIGHS OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

CITIES            FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
IMMOKALEE              97              95 - 1996
DEVILS GARDEN          97              98 - 1990
CLEWISTON              95              96 - 1990
BELLE GLADE            95              96 - 1999
MOORE HAVEN            96              98 - 1999
LA BELLE               98              98 - 1979

SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  90 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI            79  91  80  91 / 20 30 20 20
NAPLES           78  93  78  93 / 40 30 20 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-022345-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
437 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2010

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR AND WEST...
...HEAT INDEX READINGS AROUND 105 OR HIGHER INLAND...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BROWARD MIAMI DADE, AND COLLIER WATERS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, BUT MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS AND THE WEST COAST. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG, CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WATERSPOUTS: LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS AND CLOUD BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE COASTS OF BROWARD, MIAMI DADE, AND OFFSHORE COLLIER COUNTIES
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY TODAY WITH ANY
SHOWER OR STORM THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARIES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

FLOODING: SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING OF STREET AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES: HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES WILL
BE FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 NEAR THE COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
PERIOD, MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.