Excessive Heat and Heat in Delaware, August 10 to 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
742 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE, A COLD FRONT WILL SAG DOWN FROM
THE NORTH TODAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN CONTINUE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND BEGIN TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT THEN TRIES TO MOVE NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT BUT
LOOKS TO FIZZLE OUT. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 11Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AXIS OVER THE REGION. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES EXTENDS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG INTO OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE UNSETTLED ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL
TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LINE OF SHOWERS THAT ARE
HOVERING ALONG THE NY/PA BOARDER CORRESPOND TO A SHORTWAVE THAT IS
PUSHING THROUGH WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW. SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED DECAYING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS MORNING. ANY PLACES THAT DO GET PCPN WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE
OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST.

WITH TODAY'S WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE MID-LEVEL CAP HAS LIFTED NEARLY
100MB HIGHER WHEN COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
PREVENT ANY DEEP CONVECTION FROM TAKING PLACE, HOWEVER, WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT NEARING FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE MAY
SEE A FEW SHOWERS POP-UP ALONG THE CONVERGENCE LINE OF THE FRONT.
WE COMPARED/CONTRASTED ALL OF THE MODELS WITH THE 11Z RADAR
IMAGERY AND THE CAN RGEM WAS VERIFYING THE BEST, WE USED THIS TO
PRODUCE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF ISOLD TSRAS.

WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA
INCLUDING BERKS COUNTY, THINGS WILL BE QUITE STEAMY TODAY...TO SAY
THE LEAST. THE MAVMOS HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING DAYTIME HIGHS THE PAST
FEW DAYS, WHEREAS THE METMOS HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY BETTER. THAT BEING
SAID, THE METMOS WAS USED TO POPULATE TODAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES...PRETTY MUCH OUR ENTIRE CWA WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. A SURGE IN THE THETA-E FIELDS SHOWS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE ON THE RISE WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE SHOULD EASILY
REACH OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BOARD WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME LIFTING, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL NOT A GREAT FOCUS
TO LIFT ABOVE THE CCL TO THE LFC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE STILL
SHOWING A MID-LEVEL CAP IN PLACE, ALBEIT A WEAK CAP, THIS JUST MAY
BE ENOUGH OF A HINDRANCE TO PREVENT ANY UPDRAFT GROWTH. THE BEST
AREAS TO SEE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE CONTAINED TO OUR NORTHERN
MOST ZONES, AND POSSIBLY EVEN ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS, DUE TO
THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

THE BEST MODEL INSTABILITY OCCURS ALONG THE SHORE AROUND THE 18Z TO 21Z
TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER, WITH THE IMMENSE HEATING TAKING PLACE AND A WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW, THE SEABREEZE SHOULD ALREADY BE THROUGH MOST AREAS
BY THEN. TIMING IS LITERALLY EVERYTHING FOR TODAY'S CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SEEMS THAT THE METMOS HAS DONE BETTER THAN THE MAVMOS THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, SO, TEMPERATURES WERE PRIMARILY BASED OFF THE MET OR
SLIGHTLY EDGED TOWARDS THE MET FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
WERE MORE A BLEND OF THE TWO MOS GUIDANCES.

THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT AIRMASS MODIFICATION ON WEDNESDAY.
WEAK CAA BASED ON THE ECMWF AND GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTS WE
DROP A DEGREE OR TWO AT 850MB. NOT EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 80S, BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION, IT WON'T FEEL AS STICKY...DO NOT SEE ANY HEAT
HEADLINES NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY.

PSEUDO-COLD FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER ZONES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND A WEAK IMPULSE DIVING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE PLACED IN THE GRIDS FOR OUR FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE FRONT TRIES TO LIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY, BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES PREVENTS TOO MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESSION. ALSO BEING THAT
IT IS SUMMER, MOST OF THESE STATIONARY FRONTS NEVER REALLY MAKE IT
BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, THEY USUALLY GET WASHED OUT.
INSTEAD A SERIES OF VERY ROBUST CHANNELIZED VORT TRAVERSE THE REGION
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.

OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIPITATION COMES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH A BETTER PART OF FRIDAY. SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WAA TO TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF IT. THE
TIMING OF THE WAA PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY IS STILL A BIT IFFY, BUT
THE HIGHER CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FROM WEST TO EAST ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE QUESTION POSED EARLIER TODAY WAS, HOW WOULD
THE NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AFFECT OUR POTENTIAL
DRYING ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS DO HINT AT A FEW PLACES REMAINING DRY
ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY HOWEVER, WITH AMPLE
MOISTURE AROUND AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW TAKING SHAPE, CONFIDENCE WAS
TOO LOW TO REMOVE CERTAIN AREAS ATTM.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD UP AND OVER OUR REGION
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS AXIS PASSING
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DIGGING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES AND THE GREAT LAKES DURING
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHEAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE WEEKEND, WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE WIND TO VEER GRADUALLY
FROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTH. THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER OUR REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WERE TRANSITING THE REGION AND PREVENTING ANY
STRATUS AND DENSE FOG FROM FORMING...AS IT FORMED MONDAY MORNING.
THESE HIGH CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR AWHILE INTO THIS MORNING...BUT AS
THEY FINALLY EXIT EASTWARD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A PIECE OF
VORTICITY...SCATTERED CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY LATE MORNING
AND LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON. NO TREMENDOUS FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
SEEN ON MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE APPROACH OF A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY CAUSE ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AT THIS TIME A CB REMARK WAS
ESCHEWED FOR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES. AS TIME UNFOLDS...LATER
FORECASTERS MAY BE ABLE TO REFINE THIS IF AND WHEN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ACTUALLY DEVELOP.

THEN...GFS AND NAM MOS TIMING WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR FOR THE WIND SHIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AND THEN NORTH STARTING ABOUT 00Z AT KABE AND AFTER 06Z FOR KPHL.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FORECAST.

OUTLOOK...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY AS THE NIGHTS GET A BIT
LONGER AND OVERNIGHT HUMIDITIES REMAIN HIGH. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
DESPITE THE APPROACH OF A WEAK FRONT THIS EVENING...WINDS AND WAVES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN WERE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BUT THE PERIOD WILL BE TRENDING TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER
NUMBERS WITH TIME...AND HAD DROPPED FROM 11 SECONDS MONDAY TO AN
OSCILLATION BETWEEN 9 AND 8 SECONDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE MARINE
AREA TONIGHT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND STALL OVER
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OR JUST TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS WILL LEAVE AN ONSHORE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK...WHICH MAY BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND CAUSES AN INCREASED FLOW...
WITH WAVES RESPONDING A BIT AS WELL.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH THE NEW MOON OF MONDAY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL REMAIN HIGH.
CAPE MAY ACTUALLY REACHED MINOR TIDAL FLOOD LEVELS WITH ABOUT A ZERO
ANOMALY MONDAY EVENING...AND THIS IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. SO, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED
JUST FOR THE COASTAL STRIP OF ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING THIS EVENING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-067>071.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...GIGI/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION.../
MARINE.../
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING.../

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

DEZ002-003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012-016-021-PAZ054-
055-061-062-110745-
KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-SALEM-CUMBERLAND-CARBON-
MONROE-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN
DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001-NJZ015-017>019-PAZ060-067>071-110745-
NEW CASTLE-MERCER-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ004-NJZ013-014-020-022>027-110745-
DELAWARE BEACHES-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN DELAWARE...CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AGAIN WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-110745-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
336 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.